119
FXUS64 KOHX 041720
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1120 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1114 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOW
70S.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS AS CLEAR AS THE
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE HIGH IN THE CAROLINAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FORCED EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER
MAKER ON ITS HEELS. SOME PASSING CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING WILL
PREVENT THIS FROM BEING A 100% SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT'S STILL
SOMETHING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF! OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE IN THE 40S, WITH HIGHS WARMING UP INTO THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE SCOOPING
NORTHEAST AS IT PUSHES ITS ATTENDANT FRONTS THROUGH THE MID STATE.
THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING,
AND WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND MOIST. SB CAPE IN LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE IS AROUND 200 - 300 J/KG, WITH THETA-E VALUES FURTHER
SUPPORTING THE PRESENCE OF ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. BULK SHEAR IS HIGH AS WELL, AROUND 50 - 60 KNOTS
OVER THE STATE OF TN. WHAT'S HOLDING ME BACK FROM BEING MORE
CONFIDENT IN SEVERE WEATHER ON THE WEEKEND IS LACK OF SUPPORT FROM
MID-RANGE CAMS (NOT IN RANGE YET TEMPORALLY), THE DISTANCE BETWEEN
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THE FRONT (LOW IS FORECASTED TO BE BACK
IN CANADA BY FRIDAY MORNING), AND MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WARM
SECTOR. THESE QUESTIONS CAN BE ANSWERED ONCE MORE CAMS GRAB A HOLD
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS DYNAMICS, WHICH WILL BE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
UNTIL THEN, I WOULD SAY THERE'S A CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS, POSSIBLY A LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SITUATION AS LAST
NIGHT'S FORECASTER ALLUDED TO, BUT STILL TOO MANY UNANSWERED
QUESTIONS ON MY MIND TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING.
IT IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AFTER THAT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THOUGH? HIGHS ARE LOOKING AS
CRISPY AS A COLD SODA FROM THE FRIDGE, WITH A DECENT SHOT AT A
WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING MORNING OR TWO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO IF
YOU'VE BEEN WAITING TO BREAK OUT THE FLANNEL AND BEANIE, YOU WON'T
HAVE TO WAIT MUCH LONGER!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL VEER 20-40 DEGREES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AFTER 15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 70 48 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 70 48 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 64 45 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 70 45 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 65 46 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 64 45 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 69 45 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 69 47 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 68 47 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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