580
FXUS64 KOHX 051116
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
516 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 509 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WARM AFTERNOONS, COOL
NIGHTS.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY (50-90%) FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW RISK (LEVEL 1 OR 2 OUT
OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
- HIGH PROBABILITY (70-90%) FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
THE ONE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THAT WARRANTS MENTIONING THIS
MORNING IS THE INCLUSION OF A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON DAY 3 (AND A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE
REMAINDER) AS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE SPC DOES MENTION IN ITS DISCUSSION THAT "STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND HODOGRAPHS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS." AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST ACTIVE TIME WOULD BE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AND IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT
NOVEMBER DOES REPRESENT OUR SECONDARY SEVERE WEATHER SEASON, SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE WESTERLIES PROVIDING A CORRIDOR FOR THE FIRST OF A COUPLE
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
FIRST WILL BE TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE TN TOMORROW NIGHT. IT APPEARS WE
LACK QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT RAIN FORMATION,
BUT PRE-FRONTAL WINDS COULD BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS 15-25 MPH. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF COLD
ADVECTION, BUT A SFC-850 MB RIDGE WILL SITUATE NEAR THE EAST
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BROAD ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
BY FRIDAY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED CONFIGURATION AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. PRE-FRONTAL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS
A LARGE REGION FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WHERE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED. WITH RISING MOISTURE
VALUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON (50-90%). THE
COMBINATION OF DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUGGESTS
NON-ZERO SBCAPE VALUES AS WELL, GENERALLY 100-500 J/KG ASSUMING
THE PROGGED 6.0-7.0 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. AS SUCH, THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD
BECOME STRONG/ORGANIZED GIVEN THE 40-50 KTS EFF. BULK SHEAR IN THE
REGION. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THERE'S AT LEAST SOME OVERLAP OF MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS IN THE AREA DESPITE ONGOING UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT HOW FRONTAL AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH THE
HIGH SHEAR, LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRIDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM, MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE REALLY KEYING IN ON AN ANOMALOUS UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD CARRY THE FIRST VIABLE SHOT
AT NORTHERN CANADIAN AIR THAT WILL BLAST INTO MIDDLE TN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BELOW FREEZING EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE'S STILL LOW PROBABILITY (10-30%) FOR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ASSUMING AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. NO ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS, WITH THE
COLDEST AIR EXPECTED ON TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS MIDDLE TN AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MOST NOTABLE WEATHER WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS INCREASING
TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. GUSTS 18-22 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY 16-23Z ALONG WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN UPPER CLOUDS.
WINDS BECOME W TO NW AFTER 00Z BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH TAPER OFF
TO ~5 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 46 71 53 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 73 43 69 50 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 67 42 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 73 45 71 52 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 68 43 66 48 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 67 41 63 45 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 72 43 71 51 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 73 44 71 51 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 71 44 69 51 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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