643
FXUS64 KOHX 060039
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
639 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
- MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY (50-90%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.
- HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PLATEAU SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO PASS ALONG FOR THIS SHORT-TERM UPDATE.
FORECAST CHANGES HAVE MOSTLY BEEN TO ADJUST FOR RH VALUES WHICH
MAY TEND TO STAY LOWER NORTH OF I-40 TOMORROW WHERE HI-RES MODELS
KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WX WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. A SHORTWAVE WILL
CRUISE BY TO OUR NORTH, DRAGGING A WEAK SURFACE FRONT DOWN INTO
OUR AREA. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS
TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BE COMMON WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
MOST OF MIDDLE TN HAS BEEN PLACED UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS FOR FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT A RISK FOR TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. AND IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT NOVEMBER DOES REPRESENT OUR
SECONDARY SEVERE WEATHER SEASON, SO SEVERE STORMS ARE DEFINITELY
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRE-
FRONTAL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS A
LARGE REGION FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHWARD TO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE,
AT LEAST BRIEFLY, INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL YIELD SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG CAPE. AT THE SAME
TIME, STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL FORM WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXCEEDING
50KT. CSU MACHINE LEARNING PREDICTIONS FOCUS ON THE MID STATE FOR
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS, BUT THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES.
SHEAR VALUES LOOK STRONG, WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR STORM RISKS AS WE
MOVE INTO THE COOL SEASON. BUT, INSTABILITY IS UNCERTAIN WITH
SOME MODELS SHOWING LESS CAPE AND DEW POINTS BARELY REACHING 60.
ALSO, THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY WITH THE SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO SWING BY
PRETTY FAST TO OUR NORTH, SO THE FRONT MAY NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SUSTAIN MANY STORMS EVEN IF INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. WE
WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE, AND HOPEFULLY SHORT RANGE MODELS WILL
HELP OUR FORECAST CONFIDENCE BUILD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTER FRIDAY'S FRONTAL SYSTEM, MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COLD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE FIRST EARLY SEASON
CANADIAN BLAST INTO MIDDLE TN WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BELOW
FREEZING AREA-WIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL REACH ONLY INTO HE 40S! THIS WILL MAKE MONDAY
AROUND 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL! ALSO, THERE MAY A FEW
HARMLESS FLURRIES FOR THE PLATEAU SUNDAY NIGHT. NO ACCUMULATION
OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AFTER THE ARCTIC SHOCKER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WE WILL CLIMB OUT
OF THE FREEZER TOWARD NORMAL TEMP LEVELS MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CURRENT W
WINDS BECOMING E TO SE TOMORROW AT 5-8 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 46 71 53 74 / 0 0 0 60
CLARKSVILLE 43 69 52 72 / 0 0 0 70
CROSSVILLE 42 64 46 66 / 0 0 0 40
COLUMBIA 45 71 53 74 / 0 0 0 60
COOKEVILLE 43 66 49 69 / 0 0 0 50
JAMESTOWN 41 63 46 67 / 0 0 0 50
LAWRENCEBURG 43 71 52 73 / 0 0 0 50
MURFREESBORO 44 71 52 74 / 0 0 0 60
WAVERLY 44 69 53 71 / 0 0 0 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......SIZEMORE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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