995
FXUS64 KOHX 061130
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 519 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
- MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY (50-90%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.
- HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MONDAY NIGHTS. SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLATEAU
SUNDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES RETURNING MID NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
FOG REPORTS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL THIS MORNING, AS SURFACE WINDS ARE
STARTING TO PICK UP FROM THE NORTHEAST. THERE ARE REALLY NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THE NEW DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
HAS SHRUNK THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SLIGHTLY. (THIS DOESN'T CHANGE
OUR MESSAGING FOR TOMORROW'S EXPECTED EVENT.) THE SPC IS
CONCERNED ABOUT POSSIBLE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS, WHICH WOULD MEAN
THAT ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
LOW INSTABILITY PARAMETERS THAT ARE EXPECTED WITH TOMORROW'S
ENVIRONMENT, WE DON'T WANT TO HIT THE THREATS TOO HARD JUST YET,
AS THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW
STRONG THESE STORMS ARE GOING TO BE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
WHILE YOU MAY NOT REALLY TELL SINCE WINDS HAVE CALMED THIS EVENING,
WE'RE STILL SEEING A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MIDDLE
TN AFTER A (DRY) COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH A BIT AGO. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT, AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUITE
ACTIVE AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. SURFACE
WINDS WILL VEER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW NIGHT AS A BROAD
ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALL THE WAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WE EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS
A WARM SECTOR BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, GENERALLY FROM THE MID
50S TO (PERHAPS) THE LOW 60S, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT PERSISTING
INTO THE EVENING AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR. THERE'S ALSO LOW
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE WIND
SHEAR PROFILES IN THE REGION, THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE IS NOT FAVORING
A LOT OF HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE'S STILL NO
CLEAR DEPICTION ON HOW STRONG UPDRAFTS MAY BECOME DUE TO CONCERNS
WITH WANING INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND IF FRONTAL
AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THIS
DECLINE IN UNSTABLE AIR. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS NOT
INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO WITH SOME SOLUTIONS NOT
SHOWING MUCH MORE THAN A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS. SPC HAS
MAINTAINED A "SLIGHT RISK" (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR NOW, WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. DUE TO THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM, RAIN AMOUNTS OF ONLY ONE HALF INCH OR LESS ARE FORECAST.
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST DETAILS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
MOST OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL BE BEST CHARACTERIZED WITH THE
WORD "COLD". A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIP INTO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING AN AIRMASS FROM CLOSE TO THE ARCTIC. WITH
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM, POPS HAVE INCREASED WITH EXPECTATION
OF PRE-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BLAST INTO MIDDLE TN SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
BEING ADVERTISED IN PRETTY MUCH ALL MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE AND I
EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB DURING THE DAY WITH
NORMAL HEATING. CHILLY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-30 MPH
AT TIMES. THE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WHEN WE EXPECT OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE WITH LOWS IN THE
20S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SUBSEQUENT UPPER-LOW/VORT MAX
INTERACTS WITH LINGERING MOISTURE, WE MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES SUNDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
NO ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE MONDAY
NIGHT. A TREND FAVORING WARMING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER WITH NEAR-NORMAL VALUES RETURNING WED/THU.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
TAFS ARE VFR. EARLIER RADIATION FOG AT MQY HAS DISSIPATED. SURFACE
WINDS ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO INCREASE FROM THE NE AS A SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
EAST LATER THIS MORNING, AND WILL THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF TOMORROW NIGHT'S COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE
SOME LLWS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT IN MOST
CASES THE CRITERIA ISN'T MET FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 71 55 73 52 / 0 0 70 60
CLARKSVILLE 69 53 72 48 / 0 0 50 30
CROSSVILLE 64 46 65 52 / 0 0 50 80
COLUMBIA 72 53 74 53 / 0 0 60 60
COOKEVILLE 67 49 68 53 / 0 0 70 70
JAMESTOWN 63 46 66 52 / 0 0 70 80
LAWRENCEBURG 72 52 72 54 / 0 0 60 70
MURFREESBORO 71 52 72 54 / 0 0 70 60
WAVERLY 69 53 70 49 / 0 0 60 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....ROSE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page