352
FXUS64 KOHX 062341
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
541 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 534 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
- MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY (50-90%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND TORNADOES.
- HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MONDAY NIGHTS. SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLATEAU
SUNDAY NIGHT. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES RETURNING MID NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
SHORT-TERM UPDATES WERE VERY MINOR AND MAINLY AN ADJUSTMENT TO
POP TIMING AND WIND GUSTS. THE SHOWERS/STORMS TOMORROW, AND THE
LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE, REMAIN THE MAIN ITEM FOR THIS PERIOD.
WE'LL BE LOOKING CLOSELY AT SEVERE THREATS/TIMING ON THE NEXT
UPDATE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
CALM CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MIDDLE TN TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. WITH
HARDLY A CLOUD IN THE SKY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP NICELY INTO THE
UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S THIS AFTERNOON. ALL REMAINS QUIET INTO TONIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE 50S WITH 40S ALONG THE PLATEAU.
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY, ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO RISE INTO
THE 50S TO LOW-60S. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS WILL YIELD
AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF MIDDLE
TN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THERE'S STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
TOMORROW'S SEVERE WEATHER RISK AS SOME PARAMETERS STILL AREN'T
FAVORABLE. WHILE THERE'S PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES
EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS, FORCING LOOKS TO BE WEAK WITH THE SHORTWAVE TOO
FAR NORTH AND THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL TOO LATE. CAPE LOOKS TO
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARDS THE PLATEAU AND WILL ALSO WANE ONCE
THE SUN SETS, AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY LATE INTO THE EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW ALSO SHOW MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6-6.5 C/KM WHICH IS NOT THAT SUPPORTIVE FOR LARGE HAIL.
ADDITIONALLY, HODOGRAPHS WITH MOST GUIDANCE STILL LOOK RELATIVELY
STRAIGHT WITH LITTLE CURVATURE.
ALL OF THIS TO SAY THAT TOMORROW'S SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
CONDITIONAL IN THIS HIGH SHEAR, LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT. CAMS DON'T ADD
ANY CONFIDENCE FOR TOMORROW AS THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE MORE
THAN A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS & STORMS. SPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP, BUT THERE DOES REMAIN A LOW HAIL AND TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL. MAIN TIMING TO WATCH IS BETWEEN 2PM AND 10PM.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY WITH A POTENT COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (~40-60%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MIDDLE TN ON SATURDAY. THEN THE FRONT BLASTS
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY, BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY LOOK TO ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER-40S TO LOW-50S, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ALL
OF MIDDLE TN WILL SEE A HARD FREEZE WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES ALONG THE PLATEAU SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS VERY COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
TAFS REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING
S WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. GUSTS OF 18-25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE, BUT
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT 18-00Z TOMORROW. I'VE
NARROWED DOWN THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING AT EACH SITE BY
PREVAILING SHRA AND USING PROB30S FOR TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
AFTER FROPA WITH TRANSITION TO W WINDS WHICH SHOULD BE AFTER 00Z
FOR BNA/MQY (NEXT TAF PERIOD).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 54 72 52 72 / 0 80 40 10
CLARKSVILLE 53 71 47 72 / 0 50 10 10
CROSSVILLE 46 65 51 66 / 0 80 90 20
COLUMBIA 53 73 52 74 / 0 70 60 20
COOKEVILLE 49 67 52 68 / 0 80 80 10
JAMESTOWN 46 66 49 67 / 0 80 90 10
LAWRENCEBURG 53 72 53 73 / 0 70 70 20
MURFREESBORO 53 72 54 73 / 0 80 70 10
WAVERLY 53 69 48 71 / 0 70 20 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......SIZEMORE
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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