395
FXUS64 KOHX 070443
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1043 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
- MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY (50-90%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND TORNADOES.
- HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MONDAY NIGHTS. SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLATEAU
SUNDAY NIGHT. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES RETURNING MID NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED ACROSS THE EAST COAST, WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW NOW STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING A BROAD CORRIDOR OF WARM, MOIST
ADVECTION. AS EXPECTED, WE'LL SEE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TOMORROW (FRIDAY) AS THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR NUDGES
INTO THE REGION WITH A NOTICEABLE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TN RIVER MID-
MORNING, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE CLOSER TO I-65 BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD MANIFEST TO
SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF DEEP-
LAYER WIND SHEAR PROFILES AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY (SBCAPE
~250-750 J/KG), WE'LL BE ON THE WATCH FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO FAVOR BETTER
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN HIGHER QPF MORE
THAN ANYTHING ELSE. SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS MOSTLY LIMITED BY
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD WANE TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET. FORCING IS ALSO
IN QUESTION AFTER THAT POINT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS ALOFT MOVE
NORTHEAST. NONETHELESS, OUR POSTURE HAS NOT CHANGED AND WE MOSTLY
EXPECT STORMS POSING THREATS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO SHOULD WE GET ANY LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE FLOW AND/OR
LINE-EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. STRONGEST UPDRAFTS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
HAIL. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING BEHIND POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY DENSE FOG, SHOULD SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM AND POPS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED
DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES NOW HOLD OFF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS ONE
WILL FEATURE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY FEATURING
AN AIRMASS SOURCED FROM THE LOWER ARCTIC. THIS WILL BE QUITE THE
SHOCK FOR MANY PEOPLE AS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CARRY ON
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LIMITING TEMPERATURES TO THE 40S AND 50S.
ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO BELOW FREEZING
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH 20S APPEARING ON OUR THERMOMETERS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.
MONDAY'S HIGHS WILL FEATURE THE 30S ACROSS THE PLATEAU, WITH LOWER
40S WEST OF THERE. THERE'S ALSO POTENTIAL FOR OBSERVABLE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE PLATEAU. DUE TO
THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND WARM GROUND CONDITIONS, NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THERE'S ALSO SOME VARIABILITY ABOUT THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS UPPER-LOW/VORT MAX IS THE
MAIN DRIVING FACTOR FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY POTENTIAL. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING - SOME READINGS IN THE UPPER 10S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS ALONG WITH FREEZING FOG.
THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE EASTERN CONUS
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SIGNAL A WARMING TREND INTO MID NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
NORTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW PERSISTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
TAFS REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING
S WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. GUSTS OF 18-25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE, BUT
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT 18-00Z TOMORROW. I'VE
NARROWED DOWN THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING AT EACH SITE BY
PREVAILING SHRA AND USING PROB30S FOR TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
AFTER FROPA WITH TRANSITION TO W WINDS WHICH SHOULD BE AFTER 00Z
FOR BNA/MQY (NEXT TAF PERIOD).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 54 73 52 73 / 0 70 60 0
CLARKSVILLE 53 71 47 72 / 0 70 20 0
CROSSVILLE 46 66 51 67 / 0 70 90 0
COLUMBIA 53 73 53 74 / 0 70 60 0
COOKEVILLE 49 68 52 69 / 0 80 90 0
JAMESTOWN 46 67 50 67 / 0 80 90 0
LAWRENCEBURG 53 72 54 74 / 0 60 70 0
MURFREESBORO 53 73 54 73 / 0 70 70 0
WAVERLY 53 68 49 71 / 0 70 30 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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