023
FXUS64 KOHX 071053
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
453 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 440 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
- MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY (50-90%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A LESSER THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES.
- HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MONDAY NIGHTS. SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLATEAU
SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES RETURNING MID NEXT
WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 440 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE SEVERE STORM THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEST OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA, WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MID STATE IN A MARGINAL RISK. SO THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW, WITH DAMAGING WINDS REPRESENTING THE
GREATEST THREAT. THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES IS EVEN
LOWER. SURFACE WINDS HAVE INCREASED FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT, AND
WE'VE ACTUALLY SEEN SOME TEMPERATURES RISES THE PAST FEW HOURS. A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO GATHER STEAM WHILE IT APPROACHES MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND WE CAN EXPECT ACTUAL FROPA TO
TAKE PLACE BETWEEN ABOUT 21Z AND 03Z. THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
DEVELOPED A SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION RIGHT ALONG OR
JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ARE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS HAVE INCREASED, BUT THE
SOUNDINGS REFLECT A PROVERBIAL "TALL, THIN CAPE," WHICH WOULD
CERTAINLY ENABLE STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT NOT THE TYPE OF UPDRAFTS
WE WOULD NEED FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS. THERE IS PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT AND LARGE HAIL IF THERE WERE MORE
INSTABILITY. AS SUCH, WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES IS
CERTAINLY MINUSCULE. IT APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE A
HASTY EXIT BY LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED ACROSS THE EAST COAST, WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW NOW STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING A BROAD CORRIDOR OF WARM, MOIST
ADVECTION. AS EXPECTED, WE'LL SEE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TOMORROW (FRIDAY) AS THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR NUDGES
INTO THE REGION WITH A NOTICEABLE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TN RIVER MID-
MORNING, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE CLOSER TO I-65 BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD MANIFEST TO
SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF DEEP-
LAYER WIND SHEAR PROFILES AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY (SBCAPE
~250-750 J/KG), WE'LL BE ON THE WATCH FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO FAVOR BETTER
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN HIGHER QPF MORE
THAN ANYTHING ELSE. SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS MOSTLY LIMITED BY
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD WANE TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET. FORCING IS ALSO
IN QUESTION AFTER THAT POINT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS ALOFT MOVE
NORTHEAST. NONETHELESS, OUR POSTURE HAS NOT CHANGED AND WE MOSTLY
EXPECT STORMS POSING THREATS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO SHOULD WE GET ANY LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE FLOW AND/OR
LINE-EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. STRONGEST UPDRAFTS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
HAIL. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING BEHIND POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY DENSE FOG, SHOULD SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM AND POPS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED
DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES NOW HOLD OFF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS ONE
WILL FEATURE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY FEATURING
AN AIRMASS SOURCED FROM THE LOWER ARCTIC. THIS WILL BE QUITE THE
SHOCK FOR MANY PEOPLE AS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CARRY ON
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LIMITING TEMPERATURES TO THE 40S AND 50S.
ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO BELOW FREEZING
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH 20S APPEARING ON OUR THERMOMETERS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.
MONDAY'S HIGHS WILL FEATURE THE 30S ACROSS THE PLATEAU, WITH LOWER
40S WEST OF THERE. THERE'S ALSO POTENTIAL FOR OBSERVABLE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE PLATEAU. DUE TO
THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND WARM GROUND CONDITIONS, NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THERE'S ALSO SOME VARIABILITY ABOUT THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS UPPER-LOW/VORT MAX IS THE
MAIN DRIVING FACTOR FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY POTENTIAL. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING - SOME READINGS IN THE UPPER 10S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS ALONG WITH FREEZING FOG.
THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE EASTERN CONUS
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SIGNAL A WARMING TREND INTO MID NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
NORTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW PERSISTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TN TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT S
WIND. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD FAVOR INCREASING SHRA CHANCES MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. TSRA IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STRONG STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. I'VE LEFT TSRA TIMING FOR EACH SITE IN
PROB30S FOR NOW SINCE SHRA WILL BE THE MOST DOMINANT FORM OF
CONVECTION. FROPA WILL OCCUR WHICH WILL LEAD TO W WINDS TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. IFR CIGS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SRB AND CSV.
IFR CIG/VIS IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES INCLUDING BNA AFTER ~06Z
TOMORROW NIGHT (NEXT TAF PERIOD).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 73 52 73 46 / 70 60 0 30
CLARKSVILLE 71 47 72 43 / 70 20 0 30
CROSSVILLE 66 51 67 43 / 70 90 0 40
COLUMBIA 73 53 74 45 / 70 60 0 30
COOKEVILLE 68 52 69 44 / 80 90 0 40
JAMESTOWN 67 50 67 44 / 80 90 0 40
LAWRENCEBURG 72 54 74 45 / 60 70 0 30
MURFREESBORO 73 54 73 46 / 70 70 0 30
WAVERLY 68 49 71 41 / 70 30 0 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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