454
FXUS64 KOHX 071612
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1012 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 948 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
- MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY (50-90%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A LESSER THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
- HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-50%) FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON THE PLATEAU EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES RETURNING MID NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 948 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CONTINUE WORKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD, AND WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW INITIALLY
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING MORE
LINEAR AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES. INSTABILITY REMAINS IN THE 500
UP TO 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE AS LONG AS DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW 60S.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG, WITH VALUES AROUND 50 TO 60
KNOTS. PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY BOWING STRUCTURES IN
THE LINE OF STORMS. CAN NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO AS 0-1KM
SHEAR REMAINS ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND 0-3KM HELICITY IS AROUND 300
M2/S2. CAMS DO SHOW STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN INSTABILITY/SHEAR
AXIS, BUT THE STORMS MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MID EVENING OR SO
ARE MORE ANCHORED TO THE AXIS, AND THAT REMAINS THE BEST TIME TO
SEE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND THE
RAINFALL/COOLER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT, SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRIER DURING
THE DAY AND WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 948 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
SUNDAY IS WHEN THE FORECAST WILL TAKE A DRASTIC CHANGE. A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY, DROPPING TEMPERATURES QUICKLY, ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S, WITH LOWS PLUMMETING
TO THE 20S BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND, THE
PLATEAU LOOKS TO BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF THAT FOR SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW TENTHS TO MAYBE A HALF INCH OF SNOW ON
THE NORTHERN PLATEAU, AND POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SNOW POTENTIAL BUT RIGHT NOW IT'S
NOT LOOKING TOO IMPACTFUL. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ON THE PLATEAU AND AROUND 40
ELSEWHERE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT TUESDAY INTO LATER IN THE WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND, AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BACK IN THE 60S
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
WE BEGIN THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH, AND
WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED
A SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. THAT'S WHAT WE'VE USED TO TIME THE VARIOUS
PROB30 GROUPS THAT BRACKET THE EXPECTED OCCURRENCE OF TS/CBS.
SHOWERS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE, SO THAT'S WHY WE'VE
USED THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR TS/CBS. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT,
GREATER CONFIDENCE MAY ALLOW US TO GO FOR SHORTER TEMPO GROUPS. AT
ANY RATE, IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
PRIMED FOR RADIATION FOG AND LOW STRATUS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 73 52 73 44 / 80 60 0 30
CLARKSVILLE 71 47 72 42 / 70 20 0 20
CROSSVILLE 65 49 67 42 / 60 90 0 40
COLUMBIA 73 53 73 44 / 70 60 0 20
COOKEVILLE 68 52 68 43 / 80 80 0 40
JAMESTOWN 66 48 66 42 / 80 90 0 40
LAWRENCEBURG 70 52 73 43 / 70 60 0 20
MURFREESBORO 71 54 73 45 / 80 70 0 30
WAVERLY 72 52 73 42 / 70 50 0 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BARNWELL
LONG TERM....BARNWELL
AVIATION.....ROSE
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