082
FXUS64 KOHX 072321
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
521 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 502 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
- MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY (50-90%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A LESSER THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
- HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-50%) FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON THE PLATEAU EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES RETURNING MID NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 948 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CONTINUE WORKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD, AND WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW INITIALLY
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING MORE
LINEAR AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES. INSTABILITY REMAINS IN THE 500
UP TO 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE AS LONG AS DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW 60S.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG, WITH VALUES AROUND 50 TO 60
KNOTS. PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY BOWING STRUCTURES IN
THE LINE OF STORMS. CAN NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO AS 0-1KM
SHEAR REMAINS ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND 0-3KM HELICITY IS AROUND 300
M2/S2. CAMS DO SHOW STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN INSTABILITY/SHEAR
AXIS, BUT THE STORMS MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MID EVENING OR SO
ARE MORE ANCHORED TO THE AXIS, AND THAT REMAINS THE BEST TIME TO
SEE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND THE
RAINFALL/COOLER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT, SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRIER DURING
THE DAY AND WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 948 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
SUNDAY IS WHEN THE FORECAST WILL TAKE A DRASTIC CHANGE. A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY, DROPPING TEMPERATURES QUICKLY, ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S, WITH LOWS PLUMMETING
TO THE 20S BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND, THE
PLATEAU LOOKS TO BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF THAT FOR SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW TENTHS TO MAYBE A HALF INCH OF SNOW ON
THE NORTHERN PLATEAU, AND POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SNOW POTENTIAL BUT RIGHT NOW IT'S
NOT LOOKING TOO IMPACTFUL. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ON THE PLATEAU AND AROUND 40
ELSEWHERE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT TUESDAY INTO LATER IN THE WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND, AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BACK IN THE 60S
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 502 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MID-
STATE WILL EXIT OUT BY 03Z AT CSV, WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM
WINDS OVERNIGHT. AFTER 06Z FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITH ALL
SITES SEEING IFR TO LIFR VIS AND CIGS, EXCEPT FOR MVFR VIS AT
CKV. VIS AND CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AFTER 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 52 72 45 52 / 90 0 30 20
CLARKSVILLE 47 71 42 49 / 40 0 20 20
CROSSVILLE 48 67 41 50 / 100 0 40 30
COLUMBIA 53 73 44 53 / 90 0 20 10
COOKEVILLE 51 68 42 50 / 100 0 40 30
JAMESTOWN 48 67 42 50 / 100 0 40 30
LAWRENCEBURG 53 73 44 53 / 90 0 20 10
MURFREESBORO 53 72 44 53 / 100 0 30 20
WAVERLY 49 70 41 49 / 60 0 20 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BARNWELL
LONG TERM....BARNWELL
AVIATION.....05
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