156
FXUS64 KOHX 080436
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1036 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1035 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH 9 AM
SATURDAY.
- HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-50%) FOR MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE PLATEAU EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES RETURNING BY
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY, WITH MOST
ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE NOW
CALMING AND WE'RE LEFT WITH RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMS. SOME SPOTS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN REPORTED DUE TO SOAKED
GROUNDS AND POCKETS OF CLEARING SKIES. FURTHERMORE, HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTED LOCALLY DENSE FOG EXPANDING
ACROSS MIDDLE TN AFTER MIDNIGHT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS A RESULT.
AFTER FOG AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE, A RELATIVELY WARM AND
QUIET AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS WE SIT BETWEEN
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AT THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, THE "FUN"
BEGINS WHEN THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT BLASTS INTO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NOT WARMING DURING THE DAY.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S & 50S ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO PLUMMET SUNDAY NIGHT TO BELOW FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT,
THEN BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO UPPER 20S EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
DUE TO SUCH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES, LIGHT PRECIP IS ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN PRECIP TYPES SHOULD BECOME ALL
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE PLATEAU
ARE POSSIBLE SHOULD GROUND TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY, BUT
ELEVATED SURFACES ARE MOST FAVORED FOR SEEING A LIGHT COATING.
FLURRIES COULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON, BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING. OVERALL
WE EXPECT NO IMPACTS FROM THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 10S TO MID 20S. COLDEST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE
PLATEAU. I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE RIVERS/LAKES WITH SOME
FREEZING FOG SHOULD WINDS BE CALM ENOUGH. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE'LL
BE BACK ON A WARMING TREND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ANOMALOUS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITING TOWARD OUR EAST. HEIGHT RISES WILL
THEN OCCUR WITH WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY
WHEN TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES. WE'LL REMAIN
SITUATED IN A ZONE OF NORTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY, STABLE INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 502 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MID-
STATE WILL EXIT OUT BY 03Z AT CSV, WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM
WINDS OVERNIGHT. AFTER 06Z FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITH ALL
SITES SEEING IFR TO LIFR VIS AND CIGS, EXCEPT FOR MVFR VIS AT
CKV. VIS AND CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AFTER 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 52 72 45 51 / 70 0 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 47 72 43 49 / 30 0 40 10
CROSSVILLE 48 66 41 49 / 100 0 30 30
COLUMBIA 53 73 43 52 / 60 0 20 10
COOKEVILLE 51 68 42 49 / 90 0 30 20
JAMESTOWN 48 66 41 49 / 100 0 40 30
LAWRENCEBURG 53 72 43 52 / 80 0 10 10
MURFREESBORO 53 72 43 52 / 80 0 20 10
WAVERLY 49 71 41 48 / 40 0 30 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR TNZ005>010-
023>031-056>064-075-077-093>095.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....05
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