802
FXUS64 KOHX 081142
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
542 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 521 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH 9 AM
SATURDAY.
- HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-50%) FOR MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE PLATEAU EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES RETURNING BY
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY, WITH MOST
ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE NOW
CALMING AND WE'RE LEFT WITH RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMS. SOME SPOTS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN REPORTED DUE TO SOAKED
GROUNDS AND POCKETS OF CLEARING SKIES. FURTHERMORE, HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTED LOCALLY DENSE FOG EXPANDING
ACROSS MIDDLE TN AFTER MIDNIGHT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS A RESULT.
AFTER FOG AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE, A RELATIVELY WARM AND
QUIET AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS WE SIT BETWEEN
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AT THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, THE "FUN"
BEGINS WHEN THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT BLASTS INTO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NOT WARMING DURING THE DAY.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S & 50S ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO PLUMMET SUNDAY NIGHT TO BELOW FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT,
THEN BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO UPPER 20S EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
DUE TO SUCH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES, LIGHT PRECIP IS ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN PRECIP TYPES SHOULD BECOME ALL
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE PLATEAU
ARE POSSIBLE SHOULD GROUND TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY, BUT
ELEVATED SURFACES ARE MOST FAVORED FOR SEEING A LIGHT COATING.
FLURRIES COULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON, BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING. OVERALL
WE EXPECT NO IMPACTS FROM THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 10S TO MID 20S. COLDEST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE
PLATEAU. I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE RIVERS/LAKES WITH SOME
FREEZING FOG SHOULD WINDS BE CALM ENOUGH. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE'LL
BE BACK ON A WARMING TREND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ANOMALOUS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITING TOWARD OUR EAST. HEIGHT RISES WILL
THEN OCCUR WITH WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY
WHEN TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES. WE'LL REMAIN
SITUATED IN A ZONE OF NORTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY, STABLE INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
AS EXPECTED, WE'RE BEGINNING THE DAY WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE COMBINATION OF A WET GROUND
FROM RAINFALL YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CALM WINDS HAVE
CREATED PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE DENSE FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE, BUT WE EXPECT TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT DURING THE 14-16Z PERIOD. AFTER THAT,
WE'LL BE VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SHOULD STAY UNDER 6 KTS. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MID STATE. THIS ALONE WILL
PREVENT ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT. AND RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FROPA ARE NEGLIGIBLE; LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTER THE FROPA. HOWEVER, WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD DESPITE THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 72 45 51 27 / 0 20 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 72 43 49 26 / 0 40 10 10
CROSSVILLE 66 41 49 21 / 0 30 30 40
COLUMBIA 73 43 52 25 / 0 20 10 10
COOKEVILLE 68 42 49 24 / 0 30 20 30
JAMESTOWN 66 41 49 23 / 0 40 30 50
LAWRENCEBURG 72 43 52 25 / 0 10 10 10
MURFREESBORO 72 43 52 26 / 0 20 10 10
WAVERLY 71 41 48 25 / 0 30 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....ROSE
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