994
FXUS64 KOHX 081611
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1011 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1006 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
- HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (30-50%) FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE PLATEAU EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES RETURNING BY
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES AREA IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING WITH A
POTENT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ILLINOIS/MISSOURI
AREA. FOR NOW, CONDITIONS ARE CALM ACROSS MIDDLE TN. WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S. BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
ITS PRESENCE KNOWN AS IT BRINGS MUCH COLDER AIR AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WHICH MEANS THAT THE DAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL
LIKELY BE RECORDED AROUND MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES DURING MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
KEEPING WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER-30S. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FREE-FALL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY
MIDNIGHT AND THEN BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE 20S EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
COLDEST PERIOD OF THIS EVENT WILL BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOW-20S
AREAWIDE.
MEANWHILE, THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE
(~30-50%) OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 TONIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY. AS TEMPERATURES FALL, THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW BY SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SNOW MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY THANKS TO
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING LOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, GENERALLY
RANGING FROM JUST A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH. MODELS GIVE
AROUND A 40% CHANCE THAT ANY ACCUMULATIONS GET UP TO A HALF INCH,
AND THIS WOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS
OF THE UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU LIKE FENTRESS AND PICKETT
COUNTIES. REGARDLESS, NONE TO LITTLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THIS SHORT BURST OF SNOW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND STARTING TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAKING IT BACK
INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR MID-WEEK AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK, HELPING TO KEEP DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
AS EXPECTED, WE'RE BEGINNING THE DAY WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE COMBINATION OF A WET GROUND
FROM RAINFALL YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CALM WINDS HAVE
CREATED PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE DENSE FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE, BUT WE EXPECT TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT DURING THE 14-16Z PERIOD. AFTER THAT,
WE'LL BE VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SHOULD STAY UNDER 6 KTS. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MID STATE. THIS ALONE WILL
PREVENT ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT. AND RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FROPA ARE QUITE LOW. HOWEVER, WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD DESPITE THE
LACK OF PRECIPITATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 73 45 53 27 / 0 30 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 72 42 49 25 / 0 40 10 10
CROSSVILLE 67 41 52 21 / 0 30 20 40
COLUMBIA 74 45 53 25 / 0 10 10 10
COOKEVILLE 68 42 51 24 / 0 30 20 30
JAMESTOWN 66 42 51 23 / 0 40 30 50
LAWRENCEBURG 74 45 54 25 / 0 10 10 10
MURFREESBORO 73 45 54 26 / 0 20 10 10
WAVERLY 69 41 48 25 / 0 20 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....ROSE
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