197
FXUS64 KOHX 290104
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
704 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 704 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY IS 0.5"-1.5".
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TUESDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR 1.0" OR GREATER
ACCUMULATION ARE VERY LOW (<20%) AT THIS TIME.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW-NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 704 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
BITTER COLD HAS ALREADY STARTED TO SET IN HERE IN THE MID-STATE.
MANY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY UNDER 35 DEGREES! LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S TO UPPER TEENS TONIGHT, SO BUNDLE UP!
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
LONGWAVE UPPER-TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS TODAY
WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS TOMORROW FOSTERING A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET
IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT WARM, MOIST ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RATHER LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST. WE'LL ALSO HAVE MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RH VALUES AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY GUSTS PRIOR TO MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.
UNTIL THEN, IT'LL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL NOT SHIFT MUCH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
BROAD UPPER-TROUGHING AND PASSING SHORTWAVES. IN FACT, A
SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE IS PROJECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. THIS APPEARS TO
FAVOR CYCLOGENESIS CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST, THOUGH SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WHERE COLD/DRY AIR IS IN PLACE. ONCE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC SATURATION
OCCURS, WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE, BUT IS CURRENTLY
FAVORING AREAS NORTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE DUE TO WARMING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE SURFACE TROUGH. NONETHELESS, WE CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS THERE'S A LOW CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. LATEST
LREF PROBABILITIES SHOW A <40% CHANCE FOR SEEING AT LEAST 0.1"
(MEASURABLE SNOW), BUT ONLY 10-20% CHANCE OF SEEING 1.0" OR MORE.
WE'RE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING ANY MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS OR
IMPACTS FOR THAT MATTER. A GOOD WIDESPREAD SOAKING OF RAINFALL IS
LIKELY, HOWEVER.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS COOL, DRY WITH
CONTINUATION OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES PUSH IN AFTER THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT UNDER 5 KNOTS. WINDS PICK UP TOWARDS 18Z
BECOMING 6-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 28 51 36 46 / 0 20 80 30
CLARKSVILLE 27 48 32 41 / 10 50 90 10
CROSSVILLE 21 45 35 44 / 0 0 70 50
COLUMBIA 27 51 37 47 / 0 20 90 20
COOKEVILLE 23 48 35 45 / 0 10 80 50
JAMESTOWN 22 46 34 45 / 0 0 70 50
LAWRENCEBURG 27 51 38 47 / 0 10 80 30
MURFREESBORO 25 51 37 47 / 0 10 80 30
WAVERLY 29 47 31 41 / 0 40 100 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......HOLLEY
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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