716
FXUS64 KOHX 291159
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
559 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 554 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY IS 0.5"-1.5".
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TUESDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR 1.0" OR GREATER
ACCUMULATION ARE VERY LOW (<20%) AT THIS TIME.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW-NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
SETTING US UP WITH SOME RETURN FLOW TODAY AND PAVING THE WAY FOR
THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM TO BEGIN SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT PRESENT, A BROAD AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS CLOSING IN ON THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THIS
SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD. THE AIR ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS
QUITE DRY, WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS STILL IN THE TEENS AND 20S, AND
THE MORNING SOUNDING HERE IS SHOWING A RELATIVELY DRY PROFILE. SO
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH
FOR RAIN TO START REACHING THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE
GOING TO BE CLOSE TO FREEZING, BUT SHOULD STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH
MOST AREAS TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
LOWER CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS THE UPPER TEENS IN AREAS EAST OF I-65.
A TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS
TO BE THE TIMEFRAME RAIN WILL START IN OUR NW AREAS, MOVING EAST
INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING AT SPECIFICS, CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DROP, WITH MOST LIKELY QPF AMOUNTS LOOKING TO BE 0.3" OR LESS ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART
OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY BE WARMER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TURNING FREEZING AGAIN INTO THE WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ON THE ACTIVE SIDE. A SHORTWAVE TO
THE NORTH AND SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL INTERACT WITH
EACH OTHER AND BRING A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE MID-STATE, NEVERTHELESS, WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IT. RIGHT NOW, A DUSTING IS ABOUT A MEDIUM CHANCE (40 - 60%)
IN THE AREA WEST OF I-65 AND NORTH OF I-40, WITH PROBABILITIES OF
OVER HALF AN INCH IN 24 HOURS DECREASING TO LOW-MEDIUM (20-40%).
THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF VARIABILITY, BUT I AM
PLEASED TO SEE THE LOCATION OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION NOT CHANGING
DRASTICALLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS OF MODEL RUNS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ASIDE, A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE SEEMS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM EVEN IF YOUR AREA DOESN'T SEE THE FLAKES FLY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH CIGS AROUND 5,000 FT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. THE FRONT ARRIVES AFTER 21Z TODAY IN THE WEST
AND SPREADS EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS DEVELOP POST FRONT AFTER 10Z
TONIGHT. GUSTY SE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH TODAY BECOMING SW TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 52 37 45 26 / 20 60 20 0
CLARKSVILLE 48 32 40 24 / 50 80 10 0
CROSSVILLE 45 35 43 20 / 0 50 40 0
COLUMBIA 51 37 47 23 / 20 60 20 0
COOKEVILLE 48 35 45 22 / 10 60 40 0
JAMESTOWN 46 35 44 22 / 0 50 40 0
LAWRENCEBURG 51 38 47 23 / 10 60 20 0
MURFREESBORO 51 37 48 23 / 10 50 30 0
WAVERLY 47 31 42 22 / 50 80 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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