554
FXUS64 KOHX 300504
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1104 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1104 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH TUESDAY IS 0.5"-1.5".
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE TUESDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR 1.0" OR GREATER
ACCUMULATION ARE VERY LOW (<20%) AT THIS TIME.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW-NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST AND EXITING THE AREA THIS EVENING, BUT THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THIN TOMORROW
DURING THE DAY, BUT WILL FAIL TO TOTALLY CLEAR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S, WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 40S. IF
YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR PLANS TOMORROW, PLAN TO BUNDLE UP AS IT WILL
FEEL LIKE IT IS IN THE 30S! ONCE WE GET INTO THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK, OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE LOOMING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
A SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND BRING A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO START THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT WE WILL START OFF MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH COLD RAIN, AND TRANSITION INTO A WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SITUATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN SOME
AREAS. AS THE SHORT- RANGE MODELS ARE GRABBING HOLD OF THE
SYSTEM, IT IS APPARENT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT. RIGHT NOW, THE AREA NORTH OF I- 40
LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE THIS MIXED/WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 0.01" OF FREEZING RAIN,
SO NOT A LOT BUT STILL ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS, ARE ABOUT 20
- 40% IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR >0.1"
LESS THAN 20%. SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE RIGHT
NOW, WITH THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
NORTH OF I- 40 AND WEST OF I-65. PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN
0.5" ARE LOW IN CURRENT GUIDANCE (10-30%). WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION AND HOPEFULLY THINGS WON'T GET TOO DICEY
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THE PATTERN AFTER THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL END OUR BRIEF COLD AND DRY PERIOD,
WHICH WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE MID-STATE. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE OVERNIGHT, THEY WILL LINGER OVER THE PLATEAU THROUGH THE NIGHT
THOUGH. MVFR CIGS WILL BUILD IN AS THE SHOWERS EXIT AND IFR CIGS
DEVELOP OVER THE PLATEAU TOWARDS DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER OVER THE PLATEAU INTO THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL
START TO WEAKEN AFTER 13Z AND WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS BY THE
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 37 47 25 47 / 60 10 0 30
CLARKSVILLE 32 41 23 43 / 70 0 0 30
CROSSVILLE 36 44 20 46 / 50 30 0 30
COLUMBIA 38 47 23 48 / 60 10 0 40
COOKEVILLE 36 44 22 48 / 60 30 0 30
JAMESTOWN 35 44 21 47 / 50 30 0 20
LAWRENCEBURG 39 47 23 48 / 70 10 0 40
MURFREESBORO 38 47 23 49 / 60 20 0 40
WAVERLY 31 42 22 43 / 70 0 0 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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