217
FXUS64 KOHX 301539
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
939 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 928 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH TUESDAY IS 0.5"-1.5".
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE TUESDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR 1.0" OR GREATER
ACCUMULATION ARE VERY LOW (<20%) AT THIS TIME.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW-NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 928 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
HAVING ALREADY CLEARED THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BUT STILL WEST OF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEU. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHT ECHOES SHOWING UP ON
RADAR, AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE (MAINLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY)
THAT ISN'T SHOWING UP. POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED
AGONIZINGLY CLOSE TO FREEZING, AND ARE LAGGING BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS HOURLY GRIDS. SO, I'VE RE-POPULATED WITH THE MOST RECENT
(14Z) CONSSHORT, WHICH SEEMS MUCH MORE REPRESENTATIVE, AND LOWERED
OUR DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. WE CAN EXPECT
PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOME LOCATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WE
WON'T GET MUCH OF A BREAK, BECAUSE THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS AN INVERTED TROUGH, ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE GULF, DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE,
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE, BUT WE'LL
AT LEAST WARM INTO THE 40S BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
A SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND BRING A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO START THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT WE WILL START OFF MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH COLD RAIN, AND TRANSITION INTO A WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SITUATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN SOME
AREAS. AS THE SHORT- RANGE MODELS ARE GRABBING HOLD OF THE
SYSTEM, IT IS APPARENT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT. RIGHT NOW, THE AREA NORTH OF I- 40
LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE THIS MIXED/WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 0.01" OF FREEZING RAIN,
SO NOT A LOT BUT STILL ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS, ARE ABOUT 20
- 40% IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR >0.1"
LESS THAN 20%. SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE RIGHT
NOW, WITH THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
NORTH OF I- 40 AND WEST OF I-65. PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN
0.5" ARE LOW IN CURRENT GUIDANCE (10-30%). WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION AND HOPEFULLY THINGS WON'T GET TOO DICEY
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THE PATTERN AFTER THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL END OUR BRIEF COLD AND DRY PERIOD,
WHICH WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE MID-STATE. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
A SURFACE FRONT IS EXITING MIDDLE TN AS PRECIPITATION IS ENDING
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR IS ADVANCING INTO TN WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
ACROSS W TN, SEEN VIA SATELLITE. SO EXPECTING A PERIOD OF LOW CIGS
THIS MORNING THEN CLEARING OUT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. WINDS
SHIFT FROM NW TO NE TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 47 25 47 32 / 20 0 50 100
CLARKSVILLE 41 22 43 29 / 0 0 40 100
CROSSVILLE 44 20 46 31 / 30 0 50 100
COLUMBIA 47 24 46 32 / 10 0 60 100
COOKEVILLE 45 22 48 32 / 30 0 50 100
JAMESTOWN 44 21 47 31 / 30 0 40 100
LAWRENCEBURG 47 23 47 32 / 20 0 70 100
MURFREESBORO 48 23 48 32 / 20 0 60 100
WAVERLY 42 22 42 28 / 0 0 50 100
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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