389
FXUS64 KOHX 010447
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1047 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1025 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
- OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RESUME MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES RANGE FROM 0.5" TO
1" ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
- THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE. CHANCES FOR 1" OR GREATER
ACCUMULATION ARE VERY LOW (<20%) AT THIS TIME.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 928 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
HAVING ALREADY CLEARED THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BUT STILL WEST OF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEU. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHT ECHOES SHOWING UP ON
RADAR, AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE (MAINLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY)
THAT ISN'T SHOWING UP. POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED
AGONIZINGLY CLOSE TO FREEZING, AND ARE LAGGING BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS HOURLY GRIDS. SO, I'VE RE-POPULATED WITH THE MOST RECENT
(14Z) CONSSHORT, WHICH SEEMS MUCH MORE REPRESENTATIVE, AND LOWERED
OUR DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. WE CAN EXPECT
PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOME LOCATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WE
WON'T GET MUCH OF A BREAK, BECAUSE THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS AN INVERTED TROUGH, ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE GULF, DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE,
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE, BUT WE'LL
AT LEAST WARM INTO THE 40S BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM NEAR MOB
AT 06Z TUESDAY TO NEAR CAPE HATTERAS 9 HOURS LATER. THE LOW TRACK
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THAT
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR SHOULD ENABLE AT LEAST LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AND
ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHWEST (I.E., CLARKSVILLE, WAVERLY, DOVER)
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF
MEASURING AN INCH OR MORE IS VERY LOW (<20%). THEREFORE, AT THIS
TIME, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE HAVING TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SURFACE LOW, OUR
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD ALL BE GONE BY 18Z TUESDAY, AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DOMINATE THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGHOUT
THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE MID STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY,
AND AN EARLY LOOK INTO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT
WE MAY START OFF WITH MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AFTER 12Z, WITH
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME MORE
MID-CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP IN, WITH A RAPID REDUCTION IN CIGS
AND VIS AROUND 00Z AS PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. BY
ABOUT 03Z MVFR VIS AND IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 25 47 33 38 / 0 30 100 10
CLARKSVILLE 22 44 29 35 / 0 30 90 10
CROSSVILLE 20 46 30 37 / 0 30 100 40
COLUMBIA 24 47 31 39 / 0 50 100 10
COOKEVILLE 22 48 31 36 / 0 30 100 30
JAMESTOWN 21 46 30 36 / 0 20 100 40
LAWRENCEBURG 23 48 32 38 / 0 50 100 10
MURFREESBORO 23 49 32 38 / 0 40 100 20
WAVERLY 22 43 28 36 / 0 40 100 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION.....05
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