319
FXUS64 KOHX 010511
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1111 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1111 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
- OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RESUME MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES RANGE FROM 0.5" TO
1" ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
- THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE. CHANCES FOR 1" OR GREATER
ACCUMULATION ARE VERY LOW (<20%) AT THIS TIME.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OUT THERE RIGHT NOW ON SATELLITE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE A BIT MORE SUCCESSFUL
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS GETTING INTO THE LOW 20S AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE
TEENS ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE MID-STATE FROM THE SOUTH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BRING A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THAT WE WILL START OFF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH COLD
RAIN, AND TRANSITION INTO A WINTRY PRECIPITATION SITUATION OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. MIXED PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO BE A POSSIBILITY, BUT PROBABILITIES CONTINUE. RIGHT
NOW, THE AREA NORTH OF I-40 LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE
THIS MIXED/WINTRY PRECIPITATION. PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 0.01" OF
FREEZING RAIN, SO NOT A LOT BUT STILL ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS,
ARE LESS THAN 20%. THIS IS A DECENT DROP FROM THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES IN THE MODELS YESTERDAY EVENING. SNOW TOTALS HAVE ALSO
DROPPED FOR THIS EVENT, WITH EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS RIGHT NOW UNDER
HALF AN INCH. THE AREA REMAINS NORTH OF I-40 FOR THOSE MOST LIKELY
TO SEE SNOW, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR OVER HALF AN INCH AROUND 20 -
40% NORTH OF I-40.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
THE PATTERN AFTER THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL END OUR BRIEF COLD AND DRY PERIOD,
WHICH WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE MID-STATE. LOOKS LIKE IT
COULD BE ANOTHER MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT AS WELL, SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRICKY SYSTEMS IN THE FORECAST. BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
WELL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AFTER 12Z, WITH
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME MORE
MID-CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP IN, WITH A RAPID REDUCTION IN CIGS
AND VIS AROUND 00Z AS PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. BY
ABOUT 03Z MVFR VIS AND IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 25 47 33 38 / 0 30 100 10
CLARKSVILLE 22 44 29 35 / 0 30 90 10
CROSSVILLE 20 46 30 37 / 0 30 100 40
COLUMBIA 24 47 31 39 / 0 50 100 10
COOKEVILLE 22 48 31 36 / 0 30 100 30
JAMESTOWN 21 46 30 36 / 0 20 100 40
LAWRENCEBURG 23 48 32 38 / 0 50 100 10
MURFREESBORO 23 49 32 38 / 0 40 100 20
WAVERLY 22 43 28 36 / 0 40 100 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....05
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