405
FXUS64 KOHX 031642
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1042 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1034 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS MIDDLE TN FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS THERE'S A 25-30% CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
ICE ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- TEMPERATURES RECOVER QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING TO LIMIT ANY
ACCUMULATING ICE IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
SO MUCH FOR SEEING SUN TODAY. A RATHER LARGE INVERSION OVER THE
REGION HAS KEPT A STRATUS DECK TRAPPED OVER MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME ERODING OF THE DECK IN
NORTH GEORGIA THAT IS TRYING TO EEEK IT'S WAY INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND WHILE CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP FOR A FEW THIS AFTERNOON
IN THAT PART OF THE MID-STATE (SOME THINNING IN OUR SOUTHWEST),
MOST ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS. THAT MEANS
AFTERNOON HIGHS INITIALLY FORECAST ARE GOING TO BE COOLER THAN WE
THOUGHT. SOME SOUTH OF I-40 MAY SEE 40 DEGREES, BUT MOST WILL
REMAIN IN THE 30S TODAY. CLOUDS STICK AROUND TONIGHT AND WHILE I'D
LIKE TO SAY WE'LL SEE SOME SUN TOMORROW, THAT MIGHT ACTUALLY NOT
BE THE CASE AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE IN HERE PRETTY QUICKLY
TOMORROW NIGHT. THAT MEANS I'M GOING TO RUN ABOVE NBM FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN (3-5 DEGREES) AND TOMORROW SHOULD ALSO BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE NBM.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
THE BIGGEST STORY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SYSTEM TOMORROW NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
SETUP IS ONE OF AN OVERRUNNING SCENARIO WHERE RAIN AND WARM AIR
ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND PRECIPITATES INTO A COLD SURFACE
LAYER. NOW, THERE'S A LOT OF THINGS THAT WILL GO INTO THIS,
INCLUDING WETBULB TEMPERATURES, SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HOW INTENSE
THE RAIN IS THAT DECIDES WHETHER WE GET FREEZING RAIN OUT OF
TOMORROW NIGHT'S SYSTEM. AS OF RIGHT NOW, PROBABILITIES OF
GETTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN TOMORROW NIGHT STAND AT
25-30% ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND 10-15% ELSEWHERE ACROSS
MIDDLE TN. WHILE THAT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE A GREAT CHANCE, THOSE
NUMBERS HAVE TICKED UP 10-15% IN THIS MORNING'S NBM/LREF SUITE.
WE'LL GET INTO HREF TERRITORY LATER TODAY, BUT LET IT BE SAID ONE
OF ITS MEMBERS (HRRR) IS SHOWING A LITTLE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TOMORROW NIGHT. FOR NOW,
WE'LL HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY IS A COLD RAIN, BUT THERE
IS A LOW RISK OF A SWATH OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION SOMEWHERE
IN MIDDLE TN.
PRECIPITATION IN WHATEVER FORM IT ENDS UP BEING SHOULD BE OUT OF
HERE MID-MORNING ON FRIDAY AND WHILE THERE MIGHT BE SOME CLEARING OF
THESE CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
PUSH ADDITIONAL (OR CONTINUED) CLOUD COVER INTO THE MID-STATE
SATURDAY AND RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NBM
IS SHOWING THESE RAIN CHANCES AS LOW DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES FROM
MODEL TO MODEL, SO THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE REVISITED A COUPLE OF
TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN EITHER SCENARIO, TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS FORECAST WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. AFTER THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES,
WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ENTERS
THE PICTURE MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
LOW LEVEL CIGS ARE PERSISTING ACROSS MIDDLE TN. LATEST MODELS
SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME
CLEAR ACROSS THE PLATEAU AFTER 18Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW FAR WEST THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE, IF AT ALL. FOR NOW, THINKING
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN FOR BNA/MQY/CKV THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 41 31 41 33 / 0 0 10 60
CLARKSVILLE 37 28 36 29 / 0 0 10 20
CROSSVILLE 40 28 40 30 / 0 0 10 90
COLUMBIA 42 30 42 33 / 0 0 10 90
COOKEVILLE 39 29 40 31 / 0 0 10 90
JAMESTOWN 38 28 38 29 / 0 0 10 80
LAWRENCEBURG 42 30 43 34 / 0 0 10 80
MURFREESBORO 41 29 42 33 / 0 0 10 90
WAVERLY 37 30 37 29 / 0 0 10 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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