280
FXUS64 KOHX 050518
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1118 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1057 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TONIGHT FOR ICE ACCUMULATION UP TO 0.05" AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH.
- SOME SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BE CAUTIOUS WHEN TRAVELLING ANYWHERE IN THE MID
STATE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
THE BULK OF WINTRY PRECIP HAS EXITED EAST OF THE CWA WITH ONLY A
FEW BANDS REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES THE WHOLE EVENING HAVE HOVERED BETWEEN 32-36 DEGREES,
AND MOST OF THE FALLEN FROZEN PRECIP HAS MELTED UPON CONTACT WITH
THE SURFACE. A FEW AREAS ALONG THE TN/KY GOT A DUSTING OF SNOW,
SOME UP TO A HALF-INCH. THE MAIN CONCERN MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ICY SPOTS TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. THE GOOD NEWS IS TEMPERATURES
DON'T LOOK TO DROP TOO MUCH MORE FROM WHERE THEY ARE RIGHT NOW,
MAYBE 3 OR 4 MORE DEGREES. THE COLDEST SPOTS TONIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST. MAIN TAKEAWAY:
IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL TONIGHT, USE CAUTION AND BE ON THE LOOKOUT
FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE AND REMEMBER THAT BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ARE
THE FIRST TO FREEZE. BE CAREFUL OUT THERE.
WE WILL SEE A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW, BUT IT WILL STILL BE
CHILLY WITH LINGERING CLOUD OVER. MOST AREAS WILL REACH NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE 40 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING BELOW FREEZING AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
THINGS STAY DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER SATURDAY WITH HEIGHT RISES
MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND, THOUGH, WE
REMAIN UNDER A GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN. OUR NEXT
DISTRUBANCE MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY, AND AT THIS TIME THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT LOOKS RATHER WEAK. RAIN CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY
ONLY AROUND 30% AREAWIDE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH PRECIP COMING TO
AN END BY MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH
THIS SYSTEM, DROPPING TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY TO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'VE FELT THE LAST
2 DAYS, IN THE 40S. AS COLDER AIR USHERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT, WRAPAROUND MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SCENARIO CURRENTLY LOOKS UNLIKELY AS NBM
PROBABILITIES ONLY YIELD A 10% CHANCE OF A DUSTING AT THIS TIME.
THINGS WILL DRY OUT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND WE
WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO
THE MID 50S BY WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO COME
NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHING THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
MOST OF THE EVENING'S PRECIPITATION HAS TRANSITIONED ONTO THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND ADJACENT AREAS, SO WE'VE LEFT -RASN IN THE
TAFS FOR KCSV AND KSRB DURING THE INITIAL FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK
FOR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WELL INTO
THE DAY FRIDAY, ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/CALM THRU THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 32 42 31 50 / 80 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 26 41 28 47 / 30 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 32 41 29 45 / 90 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 32 42 29 50 / 80 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 32 40 30 45 / 90 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 30 39 29 45 / 90 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 32 42 29 49 / 90 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 32 42 29 49 / 90 0 0 0
WAVERLY 27 40 27 47 / 50 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR TNZ010-011-
031>034-065-066.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....ROSE
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