320
FXUS64 KOHX 210414
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1014 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1001 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
- EXPECT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
AHEAD. HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS EVE & CHRISTMAS DAY WILL REACH THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S MOST AREAS.
- THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- BOTH THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WHICH TAKES US PAST NEW
YEAR'S.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF ADVANCING ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. SO FAR, THE FROPA IS A DRY ONE, ALTHOUGH
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER ON MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM TONIGHT'S
FROPA WILL BE ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. A SECONDARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES ARE UNDER 0.1" AREA-WIDE. ANY
LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE GONE BY CHRISTMAS
EVE. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD WILL WARM CONSISTENTLY SO
THAT WE'LL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM CHRISTMAS EVE, CHRISTMAS, AND THE
DAY AFTER. IN FACT, EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES WON'T BE TOO FAR
OFF THE RECORD HIGH VALUES FOR THOSE DATES. A WEAK COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO SLIP THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON FRIDAY, SO TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP DOWN SLIGHTLY BY NEXT WEEKEND, BUT, AGAIN, RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE MINIMAL. THEREFORE, NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LOOKING BEYOND THE UPCOMING
WEEK, BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL
RAINFALL. SO THE WARM PATTERN IS LIKELY TO PERSIST BEYOND NEW
YEAR'S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF LLWS THIS EVENING FOR BNA/MQY/SRB/CSV WHICH WILL
SUBSIDE AFTER 04-06Z. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N/NE. IN ADDITION, THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE A LIGHT SHOWER COULD IMPACT BNA/MQY/CSV/SRB BUT WILL
NOT CAUSE ANY IMPACTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 38 53 34 59 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 34 49 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 36 49 31 53 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 39 53 33 58 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 37 49 33 56 / 10 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 35 47 29 54 / 10 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 40 54 34 57 / 20 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 38 54 33 58 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 35 51 34 56 / 10 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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