808
FXUS64 KOHX 211705
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1105 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1046 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
- LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
- CONTINUED WARMTH WITH ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
A VERY DRY AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO MIDDLE TN BEHIND THIS MORNING'S
FRONTAL PASSAGE. LARGE DEW POINT SPREADS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA AS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS. TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY WARMING UNDER PATCHY CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING WITH MOST SPOTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 50S. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT, DROPPING
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SCOOTS EAST TOMORROW, SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH, DRAWING WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND ON INTO THE EVENING, THOUGH WITH
PROFILES BEING SO DRY, ANY RAIN WE GET SHOULD BE NON-
CONSEQUENTIAL WITH HARDLY ANY OF IT BEING MEASURABLE. SOME SPOTS
MAY SQUEAK OUT FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO WARM AS AN EXPANSIVE 588DM
HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. BY CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY, WE WILL SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S, RESPECTIVELY. FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK, THE CURRENT
RECORD HIGH AT BNA ON CHRISTMAS DAY IS 76F DEGREES. WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING 73F WITH ONLY A 10% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 75F.
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE NORTHWESTERLY, HELPING FILTER
SMALL DISTURBANCES INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL COME ON CHRISTMAS EVE, THOUGH ONCE AGAIN, IT ONLY
APPEARS TO BE SHOWERY WITH OVERCAST SKIES. BY CHRISTMAS DAY,
CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH BREEZIER CONDITIONS, BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE
SLIM TO NONE. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WILL CARRY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ADDITIONAL LOW RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH IMPACT AND TIMING
DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR NOW, AND TURN TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 54 33 58 51 / 0 0 20 30
CLARKSVILLE 50 31 57 51 / 0 0 30 40
CROSSVILLE 49 30 53 43 / 0 0 0 30
COLUMBIA 54 34 58 51 / 0 0 30 30
COOKEVILLE 50 33 56 47 / 0 0 0 40
JAMESTOWN 48 30 55 45 / 0 0 0 40
LAWRENCEBURG 54 34 58 51 / 0 0 20 30
MURFREESBORO 54 33 59 51 / 0 0 20 30
WAVERLY 51 35 56 51 / 0 0 40 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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