862
FXUS64 KOHX 220125
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
725 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 712 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
- THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS
WEEK WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ON CHRISTMAS
EVE, CHRISTMAS, AND THE DAY AFTER.
- LOOK FOR CONTINUED WARMTH WITH ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES NEXT
WEEKEND, THEN TURNING SOMEWHAT COOLER BY THE START OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 712 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
THE EVENING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A DRY, STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
CINCINNATI IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING OUR REGION,
BUT THE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD RATHER QUICKLY, ALLOWING
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO SLIP IN AND BEGIN PRODUCING LIGHT
SHOWERS STARTING LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUING
ON TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY, THIS LOOKS TO BE A LOW-QPF, NON-
CONVECTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-24 WILL EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY
AFTERWARDS; THIS WILL BE OUR LAST FREEZE UNTIL PROBABLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
A VERY DRY AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO MIDDLE TN BEHIND THIS MORNING'S
FRONTAL PASSAGE. LARGE DEW POINT SPREADS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA AS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS. TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY WARMING UNDER PATCHY CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING WITH MOST SPOTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 50S. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT, DROPPING
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SCOOTS EAST TOMORROW, SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH, DRAWING WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND ON INTO THE EVENING, THOUGH WITH
PROFILES BEING SO DRY, ANY RAIN WE GET SHOULD BE NON-
CONSEQUENTIAL WITH HARDLY ANY OF IT BEING MEASURABLE. SOME SPOTS
MAY SQUEAK OUT FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO WARM AS AN EXPANSIVE 588DM
HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. BY CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY, WE WILL SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S, RESPECTIVELY. FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK, THE CURRENT
RECORD HIGH AT BNA ON CHRISTMAS DAY IS 76F DEGREES. WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING 73F WITH ONLY A 10% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 75F.
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE NORTHWESTERLY, HELPING FILTER
SMALL DISTURBANCES INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL COME ON CHRISTMAS EVE, THOUGH ONCE AGAIN, IT ONLY
APPEARS TO BE SHOWERY WITH OVERCAST SKIES. BY CHRISTMAS DAY,
CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH BREEZIER CONDITIONS, BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE
SLIM TO NONE. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WILL CARRY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ADDITIONAL LOW RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH IMPACT AND TIMING
DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MIDDAY MONDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES THAT MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT CKV/BNA/MQY. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST AT CKV SO PREVAILING MVFR WAS INCLUDED DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHILE SCT025 WAS MENTIONED AT BNA/MQY AT THIS TIME.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL DECREASE BELOW 5 KTS BEFORE INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 15Z OUT OF THE SOUTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 33 58 51 64 / 0 20 30 50
CLARKSVILLE 31 57 51 64 / 0 30 40 60
CROSSVILLE 30 53 43 59 / 0 0 30 20
COLUMBIA 34 58 51 67 / 0 30 30 30
COOKEVILLE 33 56 47 60 / 0 0 40 40
JAMESTOWN 30 55 45 59 / 0 0 40 30
LAWRENCEBURG 34 58 51 66 / 0 20 30 20
MURFREESBORO 33 59 51 66 / 0 20 30 40
WAVERLY 35 56 51 63 / 0 40 40 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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