231
FXUS64 KOHX 220511
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1111 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1104 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
- THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINUSCULE. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS WEEK
WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE 60S AND EVEN THE 70S FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE NEXT WEEKEND, WITH COOLER WEATHER SETTLING IN BY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN OHIO
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL SET US UP
WITH SOME RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW BY TOMORROW. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT AND
PERSISTING OFF-AND-ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE EVEN INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL NOT BE AN IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM. QPF
VALUES ONLY ADD UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND WE AREN'T
EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION. WHAT WILL BE MORE IMPACTFUL IS THE
UNSEASONAL WARMTH THAT LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION OVER
CHRISTMAS WEEK.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND EVEN SOME 70S AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THESE WILL BE NEAR-RECORD VALUES. IN FACT, MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE WARMER
THAN THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE DATES. A FAST-MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE ON FRIDAY, BUT A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY BREAK
THE WARM PATTERN BY SUNDAY SO THAT MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES WILL
GREET US BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. STILL, IT WON'T TAKE LONG FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BUILD BACK IN BY NEW YEAR'S. INDEED, BOTH
THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
TAFS ARE VFR TONIGHT AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. LOOK FOR
RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ON MONDAY, SO SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION BY LATE TOMORROW, SO LOOK FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU PRIOR TO 00Z. RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
06Z ARE MINIMAL AND THEREFORE NOT INCLUDED IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 34 58 50 65 / 0 10 30 10
CLARKSVILLE 31 57 51 64 / 0 10 50 20
CROSSVILLE 30 53 44 59 / 0 0 20 20
COLUMBIA 34 57 51 66 / 0 10 30 10
COOKEVILLE 33 56 47 61 / 0 0 30 20
JAMESTOWN 30 55 45 59 / 0 0 30 20
LAWRENCEBURG 34 57 51 66 / 0 0 20 10
MURFREESBORO 33 58 50 66 / 0 0 20 10
WAVERLY 36 56 50 63 / 0 10 50 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....ROSE
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