752
FXUS64 KOHX 221145
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
545 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 545 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
- THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINUSCULE. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS WEEK
WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE 60S AND EVEN THE 70S FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE NEXT WEEKEND, WITH COOLER WEATHER SETTLING IN BY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN OHIO
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL SET US UP
WITH SOME RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW BY TOMORROW. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT AND
PERSISTING OFF-AND-ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE EVEN INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL NOT BE AN IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM. QPF
VALUES ONLY ADD UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND WE AREN'T
EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION. WHAT WILL BE MORE IMPACTFUL IS THE
UNSEASONAL WARMTH THAT LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION OVER
CHRISTMAS WEEK.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND EVEN SOME 70S AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THESE WILL BE NEAR-RECORD VALUES. IN FACT, MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE WARMER
THAN THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE DATES. A FAST-MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE ON FRIDAY, BUT A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY BREAK
THE WARM PATTERN BY SUNDAY SO THAT MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES WILL
GREET US BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. STILL, IT WON'T TAKE LONG FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BUILD BACK IN BY NEW YEAR'S. INDEED, BOTH
THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
CEILINGS WILL BE VFR UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WHEN THEY
WILL STEADILY BEGIN DROPPING INTO MVFR OR EVEN IFR TERRITORY BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND STAY HIGH
OVERNIGHT, AROUND 10 - 15 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 58 51 65 56 / 10 30 60 40
CLARKSVILLE 58 51 66 57 / 20 50 60 50
CROSSVILLE 54 45 60 53 / 0 20 30 40
COLUMBIA 57 51 67 58 / 10 30 40 30
COOKEVILLE 56 48 61 55 / 10 30 50 60
JAMESTOWN 55 45 60 53 / 10 30 40 60
LAWRENCEBURG 56 51 66 56 / 0 20 30 20
MURFREESBORO 58 51 65 58 / 10 20 40 40
WAVERLY 56 50 65 57 / 10 50 60 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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