379
FXUS64 KOHX 221734
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1134 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1127 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
- LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE HELPED BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF THE AREA IN THE MID 50S. DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A HARDER TIME REBOUNDING AFTER TANKING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY, BUT VALUES ARE ON A SLOW UPWARD
TREND. FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSITIONED NORTHWESTERLY, AND WITH OUR
EASTERN PLACEMENT ON THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, THIS
WILL MEAN WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE FIRST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE RIPPLES
ACROSS THE RIDGE. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE VERY LOW, MAYBE A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS EVE; SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS AND EVEN WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 70 DEGREES.
BY CHRISTMAS DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S. ASIDE FROM THE ABNORMAL WARMTH, CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY AND BREEZY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLATEAU, BUT OTHERWISE MIDDLE TN WILL BE DRY. THE
RECORD HIGH AT NASHVILLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY IS 76 SET BACK IN 2021.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 73. THE PROBABILITY OF US SURPASSING
THE RECORD IS ONLY 5% RIGHT NOW. THE WARMTH WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAKING A RUN AT THE MID 70S SATURDAY WHEN THE
RIDGE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WE WILL SEE A SHIFT IN OUR UPPER
PATTERN FOLLOWING THIS WHEN A STRONG COLD MOVES INTO THE AREA
SOMETIMES IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. EXACT DETAILS ON
TIMING AND IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH SIGNAL TO SAY WE WILL
BE GETTING SOME RAIN AND A SHIFT BACK TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THIS FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
INITIALLY VFR CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10KT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS AROUND 18KT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE AND VERY LIGHT INTENSITY, NO
VSBY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
LLWS WILL BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH 2KFT WINDS IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE FROM THE SSW TO WSW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 58 51 66 57 / 10 30 50 50
CLARKSVILLE 58 52 66 57 / 20 50 50 50
CROSSVILLE 54 45 60 52 / 0 20 30 40
COLUMBIA 57 51 67 57 / 10 30 40 50
COOKEVILLE 56 48 60 54 / 10 30 40 40
JAMESTOWN 55 46 60 52 / 10 30 40 60
LAWRENCEBURG 56 51 66 57 / 0 20 30 50
MURFREESBORO 58 51 66 57 / 10 20 40 40
WAVERLY 56 51 64 57 / 10 50 50 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....13
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