215
FXUS64 KOHX 230015
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
615 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 605 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
- LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING,
BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LACKING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT
THIS HOUR ARE GENERALLY 15 TO 25 DEGREES, AND THE DATA FROM THE
00Z SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL DRY LAYER. SO WHILE
SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR, IT'S UNLIKELY THAT ANYTHING MORE
THAN A SPRINKLE IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. BUT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE, ALLOWING MOISTURE VALUES TO IMPROVE. THIS
WILL KEEP LOW RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW, HOWEVER, IT'S
STILL NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH WITH TOTALS NEAR A TENTH OF
AN INCH FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TN. NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER EXPECTED THOUGH. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID-40S TO LOW-50S AND HIGHS TOMORROW MAKING
IT INTO THE 60S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE HELPED BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF THE AREA IN THE MID 50S. DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A HARDER TIME REBOUNDING AFTER TANKING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY, BUT VALUES ARE ON A SLOW UPWARD
TREND. FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSITIONED NORTHWESTERLY, AND WITH OUR
EASTERN PLACEMENT ON THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, THIS
WILL MEAN WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE FIRST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE RIPPLES
ACROSS THE RIDGE. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE VERY LOW, MAYBE A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS EVE; SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS AND EVEN WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 70 DEGREES.
BY CHRISTMAS DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S. ASIDE FROM THE ABNORMAL WARMTH, CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY AND BREEZY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLATEAU, BUT OTHERWISE MIDDLE TN WILL BE DRY. THE
RECORD HIGH AT NASHVILLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY IS 76 SET BACK IN 2021.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 73. THE PROBABILITY OF US SURPASSING
THE RECORD IS ONLY 5% RIGHT NOW. THE WARMTH WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAKING A RUN AT THE MID 70S SATURDAY WHEN THE
RIDGE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WE WILL SEE A SHIFT IN OUR UPPER
PATTERN FOLLOWING THIS WHEN A STRONG COLD MOVES INTO THE AREA
SOMETIMES IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. EXACT DETAILS ON
TIMING AND IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH SIGNAL TO SAY WE WILL
BE GETTING SOME RAIN AND A SHIFT BACK TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THIS FRONT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO STARTING TO
POP UP. THESE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. IFR CIGS
DEVELOP AFTER 12Z FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW. SOUTH WINDS REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TONIGHT BETWEEN 8-10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
BETWEEN 12-15 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 52 66 57 69 / 30 50 50 30
CLARKSVILLE 52 66 57 68 / 50 60 50 30
CROSSVILLE 45 60 53 64 / 20 30 50 20
COLUMBIA 52 67 58 71 / 20 40 30 10
COOKEVILLE 48 60 55 65 / 30 50 60 30
JAMESTOWN 46 60 53 64 / 30 40 70 30
LAWRENCEBURG 52 66 57 70 / 20 30 30 10
MURFREESBORO 52 66 57 69 / 20 50 40 20
WAVERLY 50 65 58 68 / 40 50 50 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......CLEMENTS
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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