538
FXUS64 KOHX 231739
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1119 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
- ON AND OFF LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY AND TOMORROW. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE DROP BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
WE'VE SEEN CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING OF THE LOW-LEVELS OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS DUE TO STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE SWATH OF LOW STRATUS.
NOTHING GETS YOU IN THE HOLIDAY SPIRIT QUITE LIKE MID 60S AND
OVERCAST SKIES, RIGHT? AS THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES ITS
PUSH EAST AND WE RESIDE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A
FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH AND THAT'S IF YOU EVEN GET ANYTHING. A
WHOLE 0.02" WAS IN THE RAIN BUCKET AT OHX THIS MORNING!
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
MAJORITY OF MIDDLE TN WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH A STEADY BREEZE.
MUCH OF THE SAME CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM. BY SATURDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE CENTERED OVERHEAD, GIVING US OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. THIS IS THE POINT WHEN OUR UPPER AIR PATTERN
SHIFTS AS A DEEP LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. EXACT TIMING AND IMPACT DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN, THOUGH TAKING AN EARLY LOOK AT SOUNDINGS SHOW
LIMITED INSTABILITY OVERALL. THIS SYSTEM ALSO ISN'T QUITE AS
DYNAMIC IN TERMS OF JET STREAK PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF WINDS
ALOFT. 850MB WINDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 30-35 KTS AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES. IMMENSE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LEADING UP TO THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE, DRAWING IN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES. RIGHT
NOW, QPF VALUES RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO A HALF INCH,
THOUGH THE NBM IS GIVING A 20% CHANCE OF TOTALS REACHING 1".
REGARDLESS, IT'S STILL EARLY AND THINGS COULD CHANGE, SO STAY
TUNED FOR FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OVER 30
DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
WHEN WE START THE DAY MONDAY. PRECIP SHOULD BE MOSTLY WRAPPED UP
BY THAT POINT, BUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD SQUEAK OUT ALONG THE
PLATEAU AS THE COLD AIR MEETS THE MOISTURE. BEYOND THAT, WE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE LEFT IN A DRY AND BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
SHOWERS ARE GOING TO BE A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD TODAY,
WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5-10 KNOTS SUSTAINED CATEGORY, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL FREQUENTLY DIP INTO IFR AND
EVENTUALLY LIFR BY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH SOME VSBY DROPS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHOWERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 66 58 70 58 / 50 40 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 66 58 69 58 / 60 50 20 10
CROSSVILLE 59 54 64 55 / 20 40 20 20
COLUMBIA 66 59 72 57 / 30 30 10 0
COOKEVILLE 60 56 66 57 / 40 60 30 20
JAMESTOWN 59 54 64 56 / 40 60 20 30
LAWRENCEBURG 66 58 71 56 / 30 20 10 0
MURFREESBORO 65 58 70 57 / 40 30 20 10
WAVERLY 65 59 69 57 / 50 40 20 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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