826
FXUS64 KOHX 240444
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1044 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1040 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
- ON AND OFF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE DROP BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
A QUIET NIGHT IS AHEAD ACROSS MIDDLE TN WITH JUST THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG THE MAIN THING TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE SMALL, AND THIS SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW A 40-
60% CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND FOR AREAS NEAR
THE TN/KY BORDER. OVERCAST LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG, AND AS SUCH,
PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO BELOW A MILE ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION, BUT ARE LOW AT AROUND 20%. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL DIMINISH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IT'S ALMOST THE BIG DAY, BUT IT DOESN'T QUITE FEEL LIKE CHRISTMAS IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES. CHRISTMAS EVE WILL FEATURE HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID-60S TO LOW-70S ACROSS THE AREA WITH SIMILAR READINGS
EXPECTED CHRISTMAS DAY. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER. NASHVILLE'S CHRISTMAS DAY
TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 76 DEGREES (LAST SET IN 2021) STILL LOOKS TO
BE SAFE AS THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING AT LEAST THAT NUMBER REMAINS
LOW AT AROUND 20-30%. LOW RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL WITH RAIN
TOTALS FROM THESE SPOTTY SHOWERS ONLY AMOUNTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
THE MAJORITY OF MIDDLE TN WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
THIS UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SATURDAY, THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE WEEK WILL BE FELT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-70S FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE PLATEAU. LOW RAIN CHANCES PERSIST AGAIN ON FRIDAY, BUT STILL,
MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
AND THEN A PATTERN CHANGE. LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY, AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA, BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE AND SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SEND PWATS UP TO AROUND AN
INCH WHICH IS AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE TIME OF THE YEAR.
THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR THE AREA SUNDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST TOTALS ARE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES WITH A LOW CHANCE
THAT TOTALS REACH UP TO AN INCH. THIS FAR OUT, THERE'S A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS, BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY SHOW LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
DONE BY THE TIME TEMPERATURES FALL, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE PLATEAU SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY
DON'T EXPECT IMPACTS WITH THIS SINCE THE TIME WINDOW FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS SHORT. AFTER THAT, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL CLOSE OUT
2025 ON A VERY COLD NOTE. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOW- 20S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PREVAILING LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.
UPDATING 06Z TAFS TO INCLUDE VFR THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
TAF PERIOD. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST MVFR TO IFR CIGS SPREADING
SOUTH ACROSS MIDDLE TN AFTER 09Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THESE IFR-LIFR CIGS WILL PUSH. THAT SAID, MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THESE IFR TO MVFR CIGS STICKING AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN AFTER 00Z. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN LOWERING OF VIS ACROSS THE PLATEAU WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, WITH SOME
NORTH COMPONENT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTH BETWEEN 12-15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 59 73 59 74 / 20 20 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 59 72 60 73 / 30 20 10 10
CROSSVILLE 55 67 55 67 / 30 20 10 20
COLUMBIA 59 74 57 75 / 10 10 0 10
COOKEVILLE 56 68 58 69 / 40 20 10 20
JAMESTOWN 55 67 57 66 / 40 20 30 30
LAWRENCEBURG 58 73 57 74 / 10 10 0 10
MURFREESBORO 58 73 58 74 / 20 20 10 10
WAVERLY 58 72 58 72 / 20 10 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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