542
FXUS64 KOHX 250427
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1027 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1026 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
- LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE SUNDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE DROP BY THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
IT WAS A VERY WARM CHRISTMAS EVE, WITH BNA REACHING 76 DEGREES.
THAT TIES THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR NASHVILLE SET BACK
IN 1964. BUT WAIT THERE'S MORE, OUR MORNING LOW TEMPERATURE WAS
62 DEGREES. THE RECORD "WARMEST LOW" FOR THE 24TH IS 61 DEGREES,
SET BACK IN 1875! IF TEMPERATURES REFRAIN FROM FALLING BELOW 62
DEGREES BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WE'LL SET A NEW RECORD FOR
WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE. A GENERAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS OFF TO OUR NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
TOWARDS MIDDLE TN THURSDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO
OUR NORTH, BUT WILL OFFER SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES TO SEE ANY
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AND ALONG THE PLATEAU.
MORE WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 70S WEST OF THE PLATEAU AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
OVER THE PLATEAU, AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES IN OVERNIGHT, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS. AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH, WINTER
RETURNS, AS WE SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 30S AND 40S.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S MONDAY
NIGHT INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR SOME
LOCATIONS, MAINLY N OF I-40 AND OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND, COULD
SEE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THAT SAID, NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME OR MAJOR
IMPACTS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL, BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. BY 12Z,
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RETREAT NORTH AFTER 00Z,
ALLOWING FOR IMPROVEMENTS AT BNA, MQY, AND CKV. LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST LONGER ACROSS THE PLATEAU, WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
CSV AND SRB. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 59 76 61 73 / 0 10 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 59 74 61 73 / 0 10 10 0
CROSSVILLE 55 66 56 67 / 10 20 10 10
COLUMBIA 57 77 59 73 / 0 10 0 10
COOKEVILLE 57 68 58 68 / 20 30 10 10
JAMESTOWN 56 66 57 67 / 20 30 20 10
LAWRENCEBURG 57 76 59 71 / 0 0 0 10
MURFREESBORO 57 75 59 72 / 0 10 10 10
WAVERLY 57 75 60 71 / 0 10 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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