301
FXUS64 KOHX 251742
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1142 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1136 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
- THERE ARE LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING,
MAINLY EAST OF I-65.
- LOOK FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE SUNDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE DROP BY THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
IF YOU'VE EVER WONDERED WHAT IT MIGHT BE LIKE TO CELEBRATE
CHRISTMAS IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE, WHERE IT'S THEIR WARM
SEASON, THIS SHOULD GIVE YOU SOME IDEA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD UP A
LITTLE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, SO WE ARE UNLIKELY TO
MATCH YESTERDAY'S TEMPERATURE SURGE THAT BUMPED THE MERCURY UP TO
76 DEGREES AT BNA (BUT WE'LL STILL PROBABLY REACH THE LOW 70S).
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS QUITE HUMID;
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING AT OHX CLOCKS IN AT 0.89",
WHICH IS BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES FOR THIS DATE, AND
GIVES US A PWAT+ OF 185 (MEANING THAT THE OBSERVED PWAT IS 185%
OF THE DAILY MEAN VALUE). ANYWAY, A PESKY SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS
SITUATED TO OUR NORTH, SO THERE ARE CONTINUED LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH LATE TOMORROW, MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF I-65.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR ANOTHER SILENT NIGHT TONIGHT WEATHER-WISE,
AND A QUIET DAY TOMORROW, AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
THE CURRENT WARM SPELL WILL COME CRASHING DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THERE ARE SOME RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY, BUT WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION LINGERING WELL INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A LATER FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, SO THE COLDEST AIR WON'T REACH THE MID
STATE UNTIL MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. TOTAL QPF SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY RANGES FROM ROUGHLY 1/3" TO 2/3", WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS LINED UP ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION MIGHT MIX IN MONDAY
MORNING, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS, BUT
IMPACTS FROM THAT WILL BE MINIMAL. THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT'S COLD FRONT IS GOING TO BE AN ABRUPT PATTERN SHIFT FROM
NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TO BELOW-NORMAL COLD. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION, OR AT LEAST UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY, ANYWAY. HOWEVER, COLD TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO SETTLE IN
FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
CLOUDS ARE PERSISTENT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SPOTS TRYING TO CLEAR OUT PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THUS, I'VE KEPT THE BNA, MQY, AND CKV TAFS AT MVFR THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH CEILINGS VARYING 012-025. MEANWHILE, SRB AND CSV ARE
DEALING WITH IFR/LIFR WHICH WAS A BIT OF A SURPRISE. I'VE KEPT
THAT GOING A FEW HOURS BEFORE MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH
INCREASING SW WIND GUSTS, GENERALLY 15-20 KTS AFTER 15Z. IFR
CIGS FOR SRB AND CSV LIKELY RETURNS TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 60 72 57 / 0 10 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 73 61 71 56 / 10 10 20 0
CROSSVILLE 64 56 67 56 / 20 10 20 20
COLUMBIA 72 59 72 58 / 0 0 10 10
COOKEVILLE 66 58 67 57 / 20 20 30 20
JAMESTOWN 64 56 66 56 / 20 20 30 20
LAWRENCEBURG 72 59 72 58 / 0 0 10 20
MURFREESBORO 71 59 72 57 / 10 10 20 20
WAVERLY 71 59 71 56 / 0 10 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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