390
FXUS64 KOHX 260013
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
613 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 605 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
- THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING,
MAINLY EAST OF I-65.
- LOOK FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE SUNDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE DROP BY THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN, BUT THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
KEPT THINGS NOT AS EXTREME. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WAS OBSERVED
FOR MOST OF THE DAY FOR FOLKS ACROSS THE PLATEAU. TONIGHT, LOW
CLOUDS STICK AROUND KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. THE PLATEAU HAS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE TO SEE FOG
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SO USE EXTRA CAUTION IF YOU'RE TRAVELING
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY BRINGS MORE WARM AND CLOUDY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
IF YOU'VE EVER WONDERED WHAT IT MIGHT BE LIKE TO CELEBRATE
CHRISTMAS IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE, WHERE IT'S THEIR WARM
SEASON, THIS SHOULD GIVE YOU SOME IDEA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD UP A
LITTLE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, SO WE ARE UNLIKELY TO
MATCH YESTERDAY'S TEMPERATURE SURGE THAT BUMPED THE MERCURY UP TO
76 DEGREES AT BNA (BUT WE'LL STILL PROBABLY REACH THE LOW 70S).
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS QUITE HUMID;
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING AT OHX CLOCKS IN AT 0.89",
WHICH IS BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES FOR THIS DATE, AND
GIVES US A PWAT+ OF 185 (MEANING THAT THE OBSERVED PWAT IS 185%
OF THE DAILY MEAN VALUE). ANYWAY, A PESKY SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS
SITUATED TO OUR NORTH, SO THERE ARE CONTINUED LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH LATE TOMORROW, MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF I-65.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR ANOTHER SILENT NIGHT TONIGHT WEATHER-WISE,
AND A QUIET DAY TOMORROW, AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
THE CURRENT WARM SPELL WILL COME CRASHING DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THERE ARE SOME RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY, BUT WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION LINGERING WELL INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A LATER FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, SO THE COLDEST AIR WON'T REACH THE MID
STATE UNTIL MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. TOTAL QPF SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY RANGES FROM ROUGHLY 1/3" TO 2/3", WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS LINED UP ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION MIGHT MIX IN MONDAY
MORNING, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS, BUT
IMPACTS FROM THAT WILL BE MINIMAL. THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT'S COLD FRONT IS GOING TO BE AN ABRUPT PATTERN SHIFT FROM
NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TO BELOW-NORMAL COLD. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION, OR AT LEAST UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY, ANYWAY. HOWEVER, COLD TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO SETTLE IN
FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE TN, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR
AT CSV AND SRB OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY AT 15-20 KNOTS AFTER
15Z AND LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF I-65 THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, HOWEVER,
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 60 72 57 73 / 10 20 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 61 71 55 72 / 10 20 0 0
CROSSVILLE 56 65 55 70 / 10 20 10 0
COLUMBIA 59 71 57 76 / 0 10 10 0
COOKEVILLE 57 66 58 70 / 20 30 20 10
JAMESTOWN 56 65 55 70 / 20 30 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 59 70 58 75 / 0 10 10 0
MURFREESBORO 59 70 57 75 / 0 20 10 0
WAVERLY 59 70 56 73 / 10 10 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......CRAVENS
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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