032
FXUS64 KOHX 260342
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
942 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 918 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
- THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING,
MAINLY EAST OF I-65.
- LOOK FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE SUNDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE DROP BY THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 918 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT, WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. A
SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND HAS KEPT A STRATUS DECK
OVER MIDDLE TN THE PAST FEW DAYS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SW EDGE OF THIS LAYER ERODING AWAY, LEAVING PORTIONS OF SW
MIDDLE TN WITH CLEAR SKIES. THAT SAID, MORE CLOUDS ARE BUILDING IN
BEHIND SO THE CLEARING ISNT EXPECTED TO LAST TOO LONG. FRIDAY
OFFERS MUCH OF THE SAME WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S AND
CLOUDY SKIES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE EAST OF I-65 AND ALONG THE
PLATEAU. SATURDAY WILL HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PLATEAU BUT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 918 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THERE ARE SOME RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY, BUT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION LINGERING WELL
INTO MONDAY. MODELS STILL ARE TRENDING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TOTAL QPF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY RANGES FROM
ROUGHLY 0.40 TO 0.80 INCHES, WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS LINED UP
ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER AND UPPER CUMBERLAND. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION MIGHT MIX IN MONDAY
MORNING, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS, BUT
IMPACTS FROM THAT WILL BE MINIMAL. COLD TEMPERATURES SET IN MONDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALSO RETURN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE TN, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR
AT CSV AND SRB OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY AT 15-20 KNOTS AFTER
15Z AND LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF I-65 THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, HOWEVER,
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 60 72 58 75 / 0 20 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 61 71 55 74 / 10 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 56 65 55 69 / 10 20 10 0
COLUMBIA 59 71 58 75 / 0 10 10 0
COOKEVILLE 57 66 57 70 / 10 30 10 0
JAMESTOWN 56 65 55 69 / 20 30 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 59 70 58 75 / 0 10 10 0
MURFREESBORO 59 71 58 75 / 0 20 10 0
WAVERLY 59 70 57 73 / 0 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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