064
FXUS64 KOHX 130048
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
648 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 645 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
- MEDIUM CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (LESS THAN 1") ACROSS
THE PLATEAU WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (LESS THAN 20%).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 645 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES CURRENTLY. AREA CONDITIONS ARE
QUIET/STABLE AND THERE'S NO INDICATION OF MAJOR QPF CHANGES IN
RECENT GUIDANCE THAT MAY AFFECT NBM WINTER WEATHER PROBABILITIES
MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
THOUGH WE STARTED OFF QUITE FROSTY THIS MORNING WITH AREAWIDE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S, SURFACE RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, PROMOTING SUNNY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD INFLUENCE OVER OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGHS NEAR 50 TODAY, WARMING INTO THE 50S-LOW 60S BY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
BY WEDNESDAY, TROUGHING ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FILTER INTO MIDDLE TN. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A STRONG
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAJORITY OF THE
RAIN IS COMING TO AN END. TEMPERATURES WITH THE INCOMING FRONT
WILL BE STARKLY COLDER, QUICKLY DELIVERING WELL BELOW-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO THE ENTIRE AREA. AS THIS CLASH OF COLD AIR AND
MOISTURE OCCURS, A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL OCCUR.
ENSEMBLES AND THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE NBM HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. THE NBM NOW GIVES
A 20% CHANCE OF 1" ACROSS THE PLATEAU, DOWN FROM 30-50%
YESTERDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR A HALF-INCH ACROSS THE PLATEAU ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER, AROUND 50%. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF MIDDLE TN,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65, MEASURABLE SNOW (0.1" OR GREATER)
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. STILL, THINGS COULD CHANGE, SO BE
SURE TO STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES THIS WEEK.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THINGS WILL BE CHILLY, BUT DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERALL REMAIN LOW AT
THIS TIME, LESS THAN 30%. THE BIG IMPACT RIGHT NOW FOR THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE THE COLD. STARTING THURSDAY, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOONS, BUT IT WILL STILL BE COOL
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S IN THE 40S THIS WEEKEND. THE "WARMEST"
DAY WILL BE FRIDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES MAY REACH INTO THE MID 40S.
OTHERWISE, IT'S GOING TO BE A COLD WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER 15Z TUESDAY AND GUST AROUND
20 TO 25 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 32 60 42 51 / 0 0 50 80
CLARKSVILLE 33 60 42 50 / 0 0 60 60
CROSSVILLE 28 55 36 45 / 0 0 10 80
COLUMBIA 30 59 41 50 / 0 0 30 80
COOKEVILLE 29 55 38 45 / 0 0 30 90
JAMESTOWN 29 55 37 45 / 0 0 30 90
LAWRENCEBURG 29 57 39 49 / 0 0 20 80
MURFREESBORO 29 58 40 50 / 0 0 30 80
WAVERLY 33 58 41 49 / 0 0 60 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......SIZEMORE
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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