645
FXUS64 KOHX 131744
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1144 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1142 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
- HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (MOSTLY LESS THAN 1/2
INCH) ACROSS THE PLATEAU WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW CHANCE FOR
AROUND 1 INCH ALONG THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, INCLUDING JAMESTOWN
AND MONTEREY.
- COLD THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE HELPING TEMPERATURES REBOUND TODAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE BIG SWINGS WILL KEEP COMING WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. BY WEDNESDAY, A DEEP TROUGH WILL SWOOP DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH RAPIDLY FALLING HEIGHTS AND A BAND OF
DEEP MOISTURE. THIS BAND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT COLD AIR SURGING IN WITH THE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SUDDEN CHANGE TO SNOW ALONG THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SHOWERS. FOR MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, THIS "COLD CHASING
MOISTURE" SETUP WILL LIKELY BRING SNOWFLAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT THE SWEEP WILL BE QUICK WITH TOO LITTLE TIME FOR
ANY ACCUMULATION MOST AREAS. FARTHER EAST, ALONG AND NEAR THE
PLATEAU, THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS ALONG AND
NEAR THE PLATEAU WILL HAVE LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER LATE IN THE
NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD REACH UP TO 1 INCH IN SOME
SPOTS. WE THINK 1 INCH TOTALS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION, SO NO WINTER
WX ADVISORIES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY MORNING COULD BEGIN WITH A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE
PLATEAU. ALTHOUGH BLUSTERY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE HELPING
TO DRY UP RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING'S LIGHT SNOW,
THE RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS COULD CREATE SOME ICY SPOTS WITH LOWS
PLUNGING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS!
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE
PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL FAVOR CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. WE ARE NOT LOOKING
FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM WINTRY WX, BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
PERIODS OF SNOW FLURRIES IN THE COLD AND SOMETIMES BLUSTERY AIR,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS TAF CYCLE, HOWEVER THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT OF WS AT MOST OF OUR TERMINALS AS
SURFACE WINDS RELAX AND WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO GUST. THIS SHOULD
CLEAR UP AROUND 07-08Z. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS IN THE 14-16Z/WED TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IFR, BUT MAY NEED TO ADDED FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS AROUND LUNCHTIME ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 42 49 22 / 0 20 90 20
CLARKSVILLE 60 43 48 20 / 0 80 70 10
CROSSVILLE 54 36 44 16 / 0 0 100 70
COLUMBIA 59 40 49 21 / 0 10 80 20
COOKEVILLE 54 38 45 19 / 0 10 100 50
JAMESTOWN 55 37 44 17 / 0 10 100 70
LAWRENCEBURG 57 39 49 21 / 0 0 90 30
MURFREESBORO 58 40 49 21 / 0 10 90 30
WAVERLY 58 41 48 20 / 0 70 80 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....UNGER
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