901
FXUS64 KOHX 140133
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
733 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 729 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
- HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (MOSTLY LESS THAN 1/2
INCH) ACROSS THE PLATEAU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCE FOR 1
INCH ALONG THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
- COLD THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 729 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM OFF TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS WILL BE ON AN
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
PLATEAU TO THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. WILL BE LOOKING OVER NEW DATA
VERY SOON BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SNOW FORECAST
TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BIGGEST THING THURSDAY
MORNING WILL BE WIND CHILLS INTO THE 10S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE HELPING TEMPERATURES REBOUND TODAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE BIG SWINGS WILL KEEP COMING WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. BY WEDNESDAY, A DEEP TROUGH WILL SWOOP DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH RAPIDLY FALLING HEIGHTS AND A BAND OF
DEEP MOISTURE. THIS BAND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT COLD AIR SURGING IN WITH THE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SUDDEN CHANGE TO SNOW ALONG THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SHOWERS. FOR MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, THIS "COLD CHASING
MOISTURE" SETUP WILL LIKELY BRING SNOWFLAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT THE SWEEP WILL BE QUICK WITH TOO LITTLE TIME FOR
ANY ACCUMULATION MOST AREAS. FARTHER EAST, ALONG AND NEAR THE
PLATEAU, THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS ALONG AND
NEAR THE PLATEAU WILL HAVE LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER LATE IN THE
NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD REACH UP TO 1 INCH IN SOME
SPOTS. WE THINK 1 INCH TOTALS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION, SO NO WINTER
WX ADVISORIES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY MORNING COULD BEGIN WITH A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE
PLATEAU. ALTHOUGH BLUSTERY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE HELPING
TO DRY UP RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING'S LIGHT SNOW,
THE RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS COULD CREATE SOME ICY SPOTS WITH LOWS
PLUNGING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS!
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE
PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL FAVOR CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. WE ARE NOT LOOKING
FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM WINTRY WX, BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
PERIODS OF SNOW FLURRIES IN THE COLD AND SOMETIMES BLUSTERY AIR,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. A FRONT WILL START TO BRING
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 10Z SPREADING EAST
INTO THE NASHVILLE AREA AFTER 13Z AND THE PLATEAU AFTER 16Z. THERE
IS A 30% CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 15
AND 19Z. HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/LIFR CIGS OVER THE PLATEAU
AFTER 17Z.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH
CIGS RETURNING TO VFR. LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE
PLATEAU AND SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE SHOWERS AFTER 22Z. GUSTY
SOUTHERN WINDS WILL DROP TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY 03Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT NORTHERLY BEHIND THE RAIN AND BECOME GUSTY WITH GUSTS UP TO
28 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 42 50 21 35 / 30 80 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 42 49 20 34 / 70 80 10 0
CROSSVILLE 36 44 16 28 / 0 90 50 0
COLUMBIA 40 48 20 36 / 10 90 10 0
COOKEVILLE 38 44 18 29 / 10 90 30 0
JAMESTOWN 37 44 17 27 / 10 90 50 0
LAWRENCEBURG 39 48 20 35 / 10 90 10 0
MURFREESBORO 40 48 20 34 / 10 90 20 0
WAVERLY 41 48 20 34 / 50 80 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......SIZEMORE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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