240
FXUS64 KOHX 140450
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1050 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1039 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
- HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A
CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IS EXPECTED BY THE EVENING
HOURS.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (GENERALLY 1/2 INCH OR
LESS) ACROSS THE PLATEAU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCE FOR 1 INCH
ALONG THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
- COLD THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ALREADY
FORMING TO OUR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO
MIDDLE TN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGH FOR ALL
OF THE AREA, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH OR SO.
THE MOST COMPLICATED PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE ARRIVAL OF VERY
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER FROM LIGHT RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. WE
CONTINUE TO EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLATEAU, PERHAPS HIGHER IN SOME PLACES. FLURRIES
PROBABLY STICK AROUND FOR AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU OVERNIGHT, BUT
WE DON'T EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION. EITHER WAY IT WILL BE VERY COLD
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AND
THE 10S ACROSS THE EAST WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 10S FOR THE
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE CONTINUED LONGWAVE
TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MANY NIGHTS IN THE 10S AND
20S UNFORTUNATELY. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT, "CLIPPER
SYSTEMS", WILL PROVIDE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE PLATEAU ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF THE OVERNIGHT. A FRONT WILL START
TO BRING SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 10Z
SPREADING EAST INTO THE NASHVILLE AREA AFTER 13Z AND THE PLATEAU
AFTER 16Z. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS FOR THE WESTERN
TERMINALS BETWEEN 16 AND 20Z. HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/LIFR CIGS
OVER THE PLATEAU AFTER 16Z.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 19Z WITH CIGS
GRADUALLY RETURNING TO VFR. LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER
THE PLATEAU AND SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE SHOWERS AFTER 22Z,
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 12 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR 250 AT 40 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT NORTHERLY BEHIND THE RAIN AND BECOME GUSTY WITH GUSTS UP TO
28 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 42 49 21 34 / 30 90 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 42 49 19 34 / 80 90 10 0
CROSSVILLE 36 45 16 27 / 0 90 40 0
COLUMBIA 40 49 20 36 / 10 90 10 0
COOKEVILLE 38 45 18 29 / 10 90 30 0
JAMESTOWN 37 44 16 27 / 10 90 40 0
LAWRENCEBURG 39 48 20 34 / 0 90 10 0
MURFREESBORO 40 49 19 34 / 10 90 10 0
WAVERLY 41 47 20 34 / 60 90 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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