699
FXUS64 KOHX 141128
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
528 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 521 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
- LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES IS EXPECTED BY THE EVENING HOURS.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (GENERALLY 1/2 INCH OR
LESS) ACROSS THE PLATEAU TONIGHT. LOW CHANCE FOR 1 INCH ALONG
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
- COLD THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ALREADY
FORMING TO OUR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO
MIDDLE TN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGH FOR ALL
OF THE AREA, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH OR SO.
THE MOST COMPLICATED PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE ARRIVAL OF VERY
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER FROM LIGHT RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. WE
CONTINUE TO EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLATEAU, PERHAPS HIGHER IN SOME PLACES. FLURRIES
PROBABLY STICK AROUND FOR AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU OVERNIGHT, BUT
WE DON'T EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION. EITHER WAY IT WILL BE VERY COLD
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AND
THE 10S ACROSS THE EAST WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 10S FOR THE
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE CONTINUED LONGWAVE
TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MANY NIGHTS IN THE 10S AND
20S UNFORTUNATELY. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT, "CLIPPER
SYSTEMS", WILL PROVIDE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE PLATEAU ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS TODAY BRINGING
SHOWERS, MVFR/IFR CIGS, AND WINDS VEERING TO THE NW AND BECOMING
GUSTY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS OUT OF THE NW WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 25-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY END AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF IMPACTING SRB/CSV. A SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
BNA/MQY FROM 23-03Z, BUT NO IMPACTS WOULD OCCUR AND CHANCES ARE
LOW. THE MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT CKV/BNA/MQY THIS EVENING
WHILE THE LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AT CSV/SRB THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 49 21 34 24 / 90 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 49 19 34 23 / 90 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 45 16 27 15 / 90 40 0 0
COLUMBIA 49 20 36 21 / 90 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 45 18 29 18 / 90 30 0 0
JAMESTOWN 44 16 27 16 / 90 40 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 48 20 34 21 / 90 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 49 19 34 20 / 90 10 0 0
WAVERLY 47 20 34 23 / 90 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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