403
FXUS64 KOHX 141727
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1127 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1125 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ENDING BY THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES, EXCEPT SNOW SHOWERS PLATEAU.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (GENERALLY 1/2 INCH OR
LESS) ACROSS THE PLATEAU THIS EVENING. LOW CHANCE FOR 1 INCH
ALONG THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
- COLD BLAST MOVING IN TONIGHT. STAYING COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF VERY LIGHT RAIN WAS CROSSING MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TODAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH.
THE GLOOMY, DRIPPY CONDITIONS WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S WITH INCREASING WEST WINDS. LOOKING UPSTREAM, A COLD FRONT
WAS APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND SHARPLY COLDER AIR. THE COLD AIR WILL TEND
TO CHASE OUT THE MOISTURE, SO MOST AREAS WILL SEE JUST A FEW
FLURRIES AS TEMPS START TO DROP. BUT, THE MOISTURE AND COLD AIR
WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME TO MIX ALONG THE PLATEAU WHERE
GENERALLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. MOST
AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE PLATEAU WILL HAVE A DUSTING TO ONE HALF
INCH, BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR REACHING 1 INCH. EVEN MINOR AMOUNTS COULD MAKE TRAVEL TRICKY
FOR THE PLATEAU WITH EPISODES OF VISIBILITY REDUCTION, VERY GUSTY
WINDS OVER 35 MPH AT TIMES, AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS THAT MAY
CAUSE A FEW LATE NIGHT SLICK SPOTS. AT THIS POINT WE THINK IMPACTS
WILL BE BRIEF AND MOSTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL, BUT TRAVELERS
ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND ESPECIALLY INTO EAST TN WILL WANT TO BE
CAUTIOUS AND PREPARED FOR SOME SLOW-DOWNS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID STATE WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S AND BLUSTERY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS.
VERY COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE MORNING FLURRIES PLATEAU,
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE SUN WILL NOT DO MUCH TO
OFFSET THE CHILL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S AND WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER
20S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE CONTINUED LONGWAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE WITH MANY NIGHTS
IN THE 10S AND 20S. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES AND FRONTS WILL
BRING EPISODES OF CLOUDS AND BLUSTERY WINDS, REINFORCING SHOTS OF
COLD AIR, AND SOME BRIEF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE MOST
NOTEWORTHY CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE FOR THE PLATEAU.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT FORECAST TIME, BUT CIGS ARE
SLOW TO FALL. MVFR EXPECTED FOR EVERYONE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO VFR NEAR 23-01Z. WINDS WILL ALSO
PICK UP WITH FROPA. GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS EXPECTED WITH A SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT THIS EVENING, BUT CONTINUE TO GUST
THROUGHOUT THE CYCLE 18-20 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 49 22 35 25 / 90 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 48 21 35 25 / 90 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 45 16 27 16 / 90 70 10 0
COLUMBIA 49 21 36 22 / 90 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 45 18 29 19 / 90 30 10 0
JAMESTOWN 44 16 27 17 / 90 80 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 48 20 35 21 / 70 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 49 20 35 20 / 80 10 0 0
WAVERLY 48 20 35 24 / 90 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....UNGER
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