639
FXUS64 KOHX 150447
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1047 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1046 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
- BREEZY WITH SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR AREAS
EAST OF I-65. A DUSTING TO 1/2 INCH ACCUMULATION REMAINS
POSSIBLE IN HIGHEST TERRAIN.
- MUCH COLDER WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 10S THURSDAY MORNING.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
THE UPPER-LEVELS HAVE BECOME QUITE MERIDIONAL ACROSS THE CONUS
TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST. A VERY EVIDENT UPPER-LOW IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WE HAVE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AND SNOW FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE TN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY DROP A DUSTING TO PERHAPS
1/2" ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE PLATEAU
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MORNING WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 10S.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED HIGHER WITH QPF ACROSS MIDDLE TN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO BETTER PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
POPS HAVE INCREASED TO 30-60% MOST AREAS, ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY
EVENING. THE COMPLICATED PART OF THIS FORECAST IS THE COMBINATION
OF COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC COOLING THAT COULD FAVOR A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS MIDDLE TN AFTER SUNSET. A CHANGEOVER TO A WET SNOW IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE PLATEAU WHERE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE. IT'S TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC AMOUNTS BUT THERE'S
AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (LESS THAN
1.0") ACROSS THE PLATEAU AS WE CURRENTLY STAND.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF PRECIP SATURDAY MORNING, ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS PERSISTENT PRESENCE OF LONGWAVE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST WILL FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND BY MID NEXT WEEK. THERE'S SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MID NEXT WEEK ALSO, BUT DETAILS ARE VERY BLURRY DUE TO VERY LOW
PREDICTABILITY WITH THESE PASSING SHORTWAVES SEVERAL DAYS OUT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN
CLOUDS 035-050 INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WE SEE CLEARING SKIES. MOST
OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY OVERNIGHT BUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT OVER THE PLATEAU.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
BETWEEN 11-16Z FOR KCSV. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
GUSTY NORTHERN WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 23 35 25 51 / 10 0 10 40
CLARKSVILLE 21 34 25 49 / 10 0 10 30
CROSSVILLE 16 27 15 45 / 20 10 0 50
COLUMBIA 21 36 22 50 / 10 0 10 40
COOKEVILLE 19 29 18 46 / 10 10 0 50
JAMESTOWN 16 27 16 45 / 20 10 0 50
LAWRENCEBURG 21 35 21 49 / 10 0 0 40
MURFREESBORO 21 35 20 50 / 10 0 10 40
WAVERLY 21 34 23 48 / 10 0 10 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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