664
FXUS64 KOHX 151120
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
520 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 515 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
- MUCH COLDER WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 10S THIS MORNING.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
THE UPPER-LEVELS HAVE BECOME QUITE MERIDIONAL ACROSS THE CONUS
TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST. A VERY EVIDENT UPPER-LOW IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WE HAVE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AND SNOW FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE TN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY DROP A DUSTING TO PERHAPS
1/2" ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE PLATEAU
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MORNING WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 10S.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED HIGHER WITH QPF ACROSS MIDDLE TN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO BETTER PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
POPS HAVE INCREASED TO 30-60% MOST AREAS, ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY
EVENING. THE COMPLICATED PART OF THIS FORECAST IS THE COMBINATION
OF COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC COOLING THAT COULD FAVOR A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS MIDDLE TN AFTER SUNSET. A CHANGEOVER TO A WET SNOW IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE PLATEAU WHERE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE. IT'S TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC AMOUNTS BUT THERE'S
AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (LESS THAN
1.0") ACROSS THE PLATEAU AS WE CURRENTLY STAND.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF PRECIP SATURDAY MORNING, ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS PERSISTENT PRESENCE OF LONGWAVE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST WILL FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND BY MID NEXT WEEK. THERE'S SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MID NEXT WEEK ALSO, BUT DETAILS ARE VERY BLURRY DUE TO VERY LOW
PREDICTABILITY WITH THESE PASSING SHORTWAVES SEVERAL DAYS OUT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BNA/MQY/CKV/SRB. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT CSV SEES BRIEF PERIODS OF BKN MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NW AT 7-12 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND TURN SOUTHERLY AFTER 03Z AND REMAIN AROUND 4-8 KTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 35 25 51 32 / 0 10 40 40
CLARKSVILLE 34 25 49 30 / 0 10 30 40
CROSSVILLE 27 15 45 29 / 10 0 50 70
COLUMBIA 36 22 50 30 / 0 10 40 40
COOKEVILLE 29 18 46 30 / 10 0 50 60
JAMESTOWN 27 16 45 28 / 10 0 50 70
LAWRENCEBURG 35 21 49 30 / 0 0 40 50
MURFREESBORO 35 20 50 31 / 0 10 40 50
WAVERLY 34 23 48 30 / 0 10 30 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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