191
FXUS64 KOHX 151707
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1107 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1034 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
- SNOW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE TAPERING OFF AS WE HEAD
INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
REMAIN QUITE COLD THE REST OF TODAY.
- THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY EAST OF I-65, WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW (<0.5")
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR READINGS IN THE TEENS AND EVEN SOME
SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
SNOW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE EAST OF I-65, WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS HAVING
ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN SOME AREAS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO
BE SHORT-LIVED, AND RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ARE ALREADY ON THE WANE.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE VALUES ARE QUITE ANEMIC -- THE 12Z PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE AT OHX WAS A PALTRY 0.13" -- AN UPPER TROUGH,
COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL COLD ADVECTION PATTERN, IS PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WE'VE EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. AS YOU CAN GUESS, THE SURFACE AND
UPPER PATTERNS ARE HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED. THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH IS
BEING REPLACED BY A DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO OUR
WEST. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT,
THUS PROVIDING US WITH SOME WELCOME RETURN FLOW BY TOMORROW,
WHICH MEANS FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY'S. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETREAT EASTWARD,
THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN SPREADING SHOWERS INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH EVEN BETTER RAIN CHANCES
TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
MIDDLE TENNESSEE CAN EXPECT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
EVENING. AS COLDER TEMPERATURES FILL IN BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY, IT IS LIKELY THAT ONGOING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU,
WHERE LIGHT (<0.5") ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. BROAD OCCLUDED FRONTAL
MOISTURE MAY KEEP LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION GOING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 BEFORE WE FINALLY CLEAR
OUT. BUT GIVEN THE SCANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED, NO ADVISORIES ARE
BEING PLANNED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THIS ACTIVE
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PREDICTABLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, AND
A SECONDARY DRY FROPA COMING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER, WITH THE NADIR OCCURING MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WHEN EXPECTED READINGS LOOK TO DROP WELL INTO
THE TEENS AND EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS. AFTERWARDS, WE CAN EXPECT
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL
NORMS BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BNA/MQY/CKV/SRB. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT CSV SEES BRIEF PERIODS OF BKN MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NW AT 7-12 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND TURN SOUTHERLY AFTER 03Z AND REMAIN AROUND 4-8 KTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 34 24 51 32 / 0 10 30 40
CLARKSVILLE 33 24 49 29 / 0 10 30 30
CROSSVILLE 27 16 45 29 / 0 10 30 80
COLUMBIA 35 22 50 30 / 0 10 40 40
COOKEVILLE 29 19 46 31 / 0 10 30 80
JAMESTOWN 27 16 45 29 / 0 10 30 80
LAWRENCEBURG 35 21 49 31 / 0 0 40 50
MURFREESBORO 35 19 50 31 / 0 10 40 60
WAVERLY 34 24 48 29 / 0 10 30 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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