873
FXUS64 KOHX 160004
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
604 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 551 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
- TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S & 20S TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
BECOMING BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- MEDIUM-HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH ACCUMULATIONS (<1.0") POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. SINGLE DIGITS LOWS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
FLURRY FEST HAS TAPERED OFF IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY IT APPEARS. LOOK
FOR A QUITE NIGHT, BUT COLD, INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING
UPPER CLOUDS DUE TO AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BEAR A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TOMORROW
EVENING WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
SNOW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE EAST OF I-65, WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS HAVING
ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN SOME AREAS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO
BE SHORT-LIVED, AND RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ARE ALREADY ON THE WANE.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE VALUES ARE QUITE ANEMIC -- THE 12Z PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE AT OHX WAS A PALTRY 0.13" -- AN UPPER TROUGH,
COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL COLD ADVECTION PATTERN, IS PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WE'VE EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. AS YOU CAN GUESS, THE SURFACE AND
UPPER PATTERNS ARE HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED. THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH IS
BEING REPLACED BY A DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO OUR
WEST. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT,
THUS PROVIDING US WITH SOME WELCOME RETURN FLOW BY TOMORROW,
WHICH MEANS FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY'S. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETREAT EASTWARD,
THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN SPREADING SHOWERS INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH EVEN BETTER RAIN CHANCES
TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
MIDDLE TENNESSEE CAN EXPECT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
EVENING. AS COLDER TEMPERATURES FILL IN BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY, IT IS LIKELY THAT ONGOING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU,
WHERE LIGHT (<0.5") ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. BROAD OCCLUDED FRONTAL
MOISTURE MAY KEEP LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION GOING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 BEFORE WE FINALLY CLEAR
OUT. BUT GIVEN THE SCANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED, NO ADVISORIES ARE
BEING PLANNED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THIS ACTIVE
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PREDICTABLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, AND
A SECONDARY DRY FROPA COMING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER, WITH THE NADIR OCCURING MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WHEN EXPECTED READINGS LOOK TO DROP WELL INTO
THE TEENS AND EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS. AFTERWARDS, WE CAN EXPECT
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL
NORMS BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MIDDLE TN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN THE AREA WITH CALMING WINDS. WIND
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND S OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
MARGINAL LLWS AT CKV, BNA, AND MQY FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING WITH HIGHER GUSTS,
BECOMING SW. A DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE REGION TOMORROW WILL LEAD
TO A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST TERMINALS AFTER ~21Z WITH,
PERHAPS, SOME MVFR CIGS. CSV COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX RIGHT AT
THE END OF THE TAF, BUT ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
JUST COLD RAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 24 49 32 43 / 10 40 50 10
CLARKSVILLE 24 48 30 39 / 10 40 30 20
CROSSVILLE 15 44 30 39 / 0 20 80 10
COLUMBIA 22 49 30 43 / 0 40 50 10
COOKEVILLE 18 46 30 39 / 0 30 80 20
JAMESTOWN 16 45 30 38 / 10 30 80 20
LAWRENCEBURG 21 49 30 42 / 0 30 60 0
MURFREESBORO 20 50 31 43 / 0 30 70 10
WAVERLY 23 48 30 39 / 10 50 30 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......SIZEMORE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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