735
FXUS64 KOHX 161105
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
505 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 500 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
- TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S & 20S TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
BECOMING BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- MEDIUM-HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ACCUMULATIONS (<0.5") POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. SINGLE DIGITS LOWS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH AND THAT WILL
KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH WILL BE
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THAT WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER
WE WILL STILL BE LOOKING AT COLD LOWS WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS TO MID 20S. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WE WILL SEE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH
BUT A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PLATEAU.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE COLD FRONT WITH
THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL APPROACH. LIGHT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE THIS FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER EASTERN
AREAS. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY WITH THEM PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BUT
COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR A SOMEWHAT TRICKY PRECIP TYPE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ALL RAIN BEFORE 5 PM BUT THEN THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD AIR BUILDS IN. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE COLD AIR
GETTING HERE AFTER 8 PM. RIGHT NOW THE THINKING IS ALL RAIN BEFORE
5 PM WITH MAYBE SOME SNOW MIXING IN BETWEEN 5-9 PM WITH LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT, THEN MAINLY SNOW AFTER 9 PM. BY 9 PM MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE PLATEAU AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE THEY
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION BETWEEN 9 PM AND 2 AM.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMP FORECAST THESE SNOW TOTALS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE SOME BUT IT'S LOOKING LIKE UP TO 0.50" IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATEAU WITH A DUSTING OR LESS IN THE REST OF
THE PLATEAU REGION, NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY WITH THE COLD AIR SETTLING INTO
THE REGION. WE WILL SEE HIGHS ONLY IN THE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE STRONG WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PALACE FOR THE START OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PUSHING COLD ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVER MIDDLE TN. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET BUT IT WILL BE
COLD. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH MONDAY
BEING THE COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE BRUTAL WITH A 40-60% CHANCE OF SINGLE DIGITS EAST OF LEBANON
AND WIDESPREAD TEENS ELSEWHERE.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST MID-WEEK GIVING US
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THIS WILL WARM DAYTIME
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK INTO THE 30S. WITH
FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL LATE WEEK WE WILL SEE SOME LOW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS AT CKV, BNA, AND MQY THROUGH ABOUT
SUNRISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
MIDDLE TN STARTING AROUND 20Z. THESE SHOWERS WILL CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW AT CSV THIS EVENING IS A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT SRB. CIGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO FALL WITH THESE SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z. WHILE IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IS EXPECTED
WEST OF THE PLATEAU BY 06Z, LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR SRB AND
CSV THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 51 33 43 20 / 30 50 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 49 30 38 17 / 40 30 0 10
CROSSVILLE 45 30 39 15 / 10 70 0 10
COLUMBIA 50 31 43 17 / 20 50 0 10
COOKEVILLE 47 31 40 17 / 20 60 0 10
JAMESTOWN 45 29 38 15 / 20 70 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 50 30 43 18 / 20 60 0 10
MURFREESBORO 51 31 44 17 / 20 60 0 10
WAVERLY 49 29 38 17 / 30 30 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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