397
FXUS64 KOHX 161734
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1134 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1132 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
- THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAINS, WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS (<0.5") POSSIBLE.
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SINGLE DIGITS LOWS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING IN MANY AREAS.
- THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES WON'T COME OUR WAY UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED WELL TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING AND THAT
HAS PAVED THE WAY FOR SOME WELCOME RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ALSO
THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED TO THE
IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AT THIS TIME, THERE ARE
NO RADAR ECHOES SHOWING UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY, BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL
FRONTOLYSIZE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO THAT MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING, WITH PRECIPITATION
TAPERING OFF AFTER 06Z. AS TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARD FREEZING, SOME
OF THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
HOWEVER, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT (<0.5") AND IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALL BE
GONE BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING, EXTENSIVE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE
WILL ENSURE THAT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS STAYS AROUND THROUGH
TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE WILL EXPERIENCE UNTIL LATE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOLLOWING OUR
OVERNIGHT FROPA. A SECOND, DRY COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY, AND THIS WILL BRING FRIGID
TEMPERATURES TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COLDEST
READINGS WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT, WHEN THE MERCURY LOOKS TO SINK
WELL INTO THE TEENS AND EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS. THEN LOOK FOR A
WARMING TREND TO KICK OFF ON TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO SEASONAL NORMS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER
SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEN A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH MIDDLE TN STARTING AROUND 20Z.
THESE SHOWERS WILL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT CSV THIS EVENING WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT SRB. CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FALL WITH THESE
SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z. WHILE
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE PLATEAU BY 06Z,
LOW TO MID CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR SRB AND CSV THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 52 32 44 21 / 50 80 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 50 29 40 17 / 60 60 10 0
CROSSVILLE 45 30 41 16 / 10 90 0 0
COLUMBIA 52 30 44 18 / 40 80 0 0
COOKEVILLE 48 31 41 17 / 20 90 10 10
JAMESTOWN 46 30 40 16 / 20 90 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 52 31 44 19 / 20 90 0 0
MURFREESBORO 52 32 44 18 / 30 90 0 0
WAVERLY 50 29 38 17 / 60 70 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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