236
FXUS64 KOHX 170055
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
655 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 640 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
- THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAINS, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
(<0.5") POSSIBLE.
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SINGLE DIGITS LOWS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING IN MANY AREAS.
- THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES WON'T COME OUR WAY UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 654 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO MIDDLE TN. WE ARE SEEING AREAS OF
RAIN AHEAD OF THIS COLD. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE
EAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING IN THE NASHVILLE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT AND AFTER 3 AM FOR THE PLATEAU. WE ARE SEEING SOME BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR AT TIMES WITH THE LINE AND CC SHOWS THE
FREEZING LEVEL AT 1-3 FEET OFF OF THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW BUT OUR SURFACE TEMPS CURRENTLY IN
THE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. COLD AIR WILL BE
SETTLING IN DURING THE EVENING BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
FOR ALL RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST 9 PM. AFTER 9 PM TEMPS WILL START
TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE PLATEAU WITH
ALL SNOW EXPECTED AFTER 11PM/MIDNIGHT. THE PLATEAU COULD PICK UP A
QUICK DUSTING TO 0.50" BETWEEN 11 PM AND 3 AM. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED WELL TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING AND THAT
HAS PAVED THE WAY FOR SOME WELCOME RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ALSO
THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED TO THE
IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AT THIS TIME, THERE ARE
NO RADAR ECHOES SHOWING UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY, BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL
FRONTOLYSIZE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO THAT MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING, WITH PRECIPITATION
TAPERING OFF AFTER 06Z. AS TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARD FREEZING, SOME
OF THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
HOWEVER, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT (<0.5") AND IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALL BE
GONE BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING, EXTENSIVE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE
WILL ENSURE THAT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS STAYS AROUND THROUGH
TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE WILL EXPERIENCE UNTIL LATE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOLLOWING OUR
OVERNIGHT FROPA. A SECOND, DRY COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY, AND THIS WILL BRING FRIGID
TEMPERATURES TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COLDEST
READINGS WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT, WHEN THE MERCURY LOOKS TO SINK
WELL INTO THE TEENS AND EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS. THEN LOOK FOR A
WARMING TREND TO KICK OFF ON TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO SEASONAL NORMS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER
SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
LIGHT RAIN HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO MIDDLE TN AND THIS WILL CAUSE
CIGS/VIS TO COME DOWN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED AS CURRENT
TRENDS DON'T HAVE BNA/CKV/MQY GOING IFR, BUT ONLY FALLING TO MVFR.
NOT THE SAME STORY AT CSV/SRB AS BOTH SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF
IFR STARTING IN THE 04-06Z TIME FRAME, ALONG WITH A RASN MIX. ALL
MID-STATE TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 08-09Z WITH LIGHT
WEST WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH OCCASIONAL WEST GUSTS TO 18-20 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 33 43 19 36 / 80 0 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 30 40 16 33 / 70 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 31 40 16 30 / 100 0 10 0
COLUMBIA 31 43 18 35 / 80 0 10 0
COOKEVILLE 32 40 17 31 / 100 0 10 0
JAMESTOWN 31 39 15 29 / 100 0 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 31 44 18 35 / 90 0 10 0
MURFREESBORO 32 44 17 36 / 90 0 10 0
WAVERLY 29 39 17 33 / 70 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......MUELLER
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....UNGER
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