267
FXUS64 KOHX 170432
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1032 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
- RAIN/SNOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK, LIGHT ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ON THE PLATEAU.
- THEN DRY AND COLD INTO NEXT WEEK. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 30S, COLDEST NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS.
- WARMING MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS IS HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE TN WITH
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT. THE RAIN WILL MIX IN WITH AND SWITCH OVER
TO ALL SNOW OVER THE PLATEAU AFTER MIDNIGHT. A QUICK DUSTING TO
0.50" OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN AREAS. RAIN/SNOW WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 4 AM WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
QUIET AND COOL WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE DAYTIME SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WE COULD
SEE A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
AXIS MOVES OVER MIDDLE TN. NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS WITH THIS.
CLEARING SKIES AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTHWEST INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS. QUIET AND STILL COOL ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, HIGHS ONLY REACH THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL COLD ARCTIC
AIR BUILDING IN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND THAT WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, MAXIMIZING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST
AND WE WILL SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURN. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE INTO THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
SOME SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING LOW
RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY SETTLED INTO CKV/BNA/MQY AS OUR LATEST
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE MID-STATE. CSV/SRB WILL DEAL
WITH MVFR FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS, LIKELY UNTIL DAYBREAK, THEN VFR
CLOUD DECK WILL BE AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOME BREEZY AROUND 18Z/SAT AFTER
FROPA WITH A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 33 44 19 35 / 80 10 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 30 39 16 34 / 70 10 10 0
CROSSVILLE 31 40 15 30 / 100 0 10 0
COLUMBIA 31 44 18 36 / 80 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 32 40 17 31 / 100 10 10 0
JAMESTOWN 31 38 15 30 / 100 10 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 31 45 18 35 / 90 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 32 44 17 36 / 90 0 0 0
WAVERLY 29 40 16 33 / 70 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....UNGER
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