532
FXUS64 KOHX 171103
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
503 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 501 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
- RAIN/SNOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK, LIGHT ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ON THE PLATEAU.
- THEN DRY AND COLD INTO NEXT WEEK. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 30S, COLDEST NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS.
- WARMING MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS IS HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE TN WITH
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT. THE RAIN WILL MIX IN WITH AND SWITCH OVER
TO ALL SNOW OVER THE PLATEAU AFTER MIDNIGHT. A QUICK DUSTING TO
0.50" OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN AREAS. RAIN/SNOW WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 4 AM WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
QUIET AND COOL WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE DAYTIME SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WE COULD
SEE A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
AXIS MOVES OVER MIDDLE TN. NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS WITH THIS.
CLEARING SKIES AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTHWEST INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS. QUIET AND STILL COOL ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, HIGHS ONLY REACH THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL COLD ARCTIC
AIR BUILDING IN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND THAT WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, MAXIMIZING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST
AND WE WILL SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURN. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE INTO THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
SOME SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING LOW
RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE RESULTING IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
AT CSV AND SRB. THIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE, WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT
AROUND 20 KNOTS STARTING AROUND 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 44 19 36 24 / 10 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 39 16 33 21 / 10 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 40 16 31 19 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 44 18 36 22 / 10 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 40 17 31 21 / 10 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 39 15 30 20 / 10 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 44 18 36 22 / 10 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 44 18 36 22 / 10 10 0 0
WAVERLY 40 17 33 22 / 10 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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