048
FXUS64 KOHX 181746
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1146 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1144 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
- DRY, COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S, EVEN IN THE AFTERNOONS. COLDEST MORNING
EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY WITH LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
- TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER WEDNESDAY WITH LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OUT AT FORECAST TIME AND AS THEY DO, VERY DRY
AND COLD AIR IS FILTERING INTO MIDDLE TN. THE COMBINATION OF
CLEARING SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS GOING TO SET THE STAGE FOR
SOME PRETTY CHILLY TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING. PRETTY MUCH
EVERYONE WILL BE IN THE TEENS BY SUNRISE. WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF SUN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S EACH AFTERNOON, A BREEZE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. WIND CHILL VALUES TOMORROW AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS PROBABLY WON'T ESCAPE THE 20S. THEN MONDAY NIGHT, WHEN
THE WINDS FINALLY CALM DOWN, A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER
MIDDLE TN ALLOWING FOR WHAT LOOKS TO BE PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TUESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS. IN
FACT, SEVERAL PLACES WILL SEE SINGLE DIGITS. IN THE END, THE NEXT 3
DAYS ARE GOING TO BE PRETTY CHILLY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
ON WEDNESDAY, WITH ALL OF THIS COLD AIR IN PLACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. AN INITIAL LOOK AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPLY SATURATED AIR MASS, PERFECT FOR CRYSTAL
FORMATION AND SNOW POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, PROBS ARE
PRETTY LOW FOR ANYONE TO SEE MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION. GFS QPFS ARE
THE BEST OF THE BUNCH AND IF IT VERIFIES, AN INCH WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE EURO IS PRETTY DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FOR THIS REASON, PROBS OF GETTING THAT INCH STAND AT
ABOUT 10% RIGHT NOW. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO BE
KEY AS PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL,
AS WELL. MUCH TO WORK OUT HERE.
AFTER WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE MID-STATE
BEING DRY THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL, BUT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN WHEN OUR NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES AT THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, SO LOOK FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE SW. HOWEVER, THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS A QUICK,
DRY FROPA WILL OCCUR EARLY MONDAY, SO SURFACE WINDS WILL SWING
BACK TO THE NW AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE, TAFS ARE VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 35 23 34 15 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 33 20 29 12 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 31 19 31 8 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 36 22 37 13 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 32 19 31 10 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 30 19 29 8 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 37 21 37 13 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 36 20 35 11 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 33 21 31 13 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....ROSE
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