002
FXUS64 KOHX 181749
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1149 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1058 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
- DRY, COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S, EVEN IN THE AFTERNOONS. COLDEST MORNING
EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY WITH LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
- TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER WEDNESDAY WITH LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO OUR SW. IT WAS 18 DEGREES THIS MORNING AT THE 5 AM WEATHER
BALLOON LAUNCH. SINCE THEN, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO A BALMY 28
DEGREES. DISAPPOINTING, I KNOW. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
TONIGHT, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT, BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED TONIGHT, FEEL LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN. MONDAY BRINGS
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND DRY WEATHER. SKIES
CLEAR OUT ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO
THE LOW TEENS TO EVEN SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE TN/KY BORDER AND
THE UPPER CUMBERLAND. NEEDLESS TO SAY, WINTER IS IN FULL FORCE SO
DON'T FORGET THOSE COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS. DRESS IN LAYERS,
LIMIT YOUR TIME OUTDOORS, CHECK ON THOSE VULNERABLE GROUPS, AND
PLACE A COLD WEATHER KIT IN YOUR VEHICLE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
THE MAIN TOPIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FOCUSED ON
RETURNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WHETHER WE WILL SEE ANY SNOW.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY,
INCREASING SOUTHERLY MOISTURE SUPPORT AND THUS, INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD, IN THE UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, JUST IN TIME FOR RAIN TO START ENTERING MIDDLE TN.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL WORK EAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN ENDING BY
THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TIME, PERIODS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF ANY AREAS MANAGE TO SEE HEAVIER RAIN RATES, A
A CHANGE TO A WET SNOW COULD OCCUR, BUT WITH MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE, NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS. CURRENTLY,
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE TN/KY BORDER AND PLATEAU WITH
ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES OF SNOW BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES, AS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LATER START TIME WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER SNOW CHANCES. UNSETTLED WEATHER STICKS
AROUND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW CHANCES LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 35 23 34 15 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 33 20 29 12 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 31 19 31 8 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 36 22 37 13 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 32 19 31 10 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 30 19 29 8 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 37 21 37 13 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 36 20 35 11 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 33 21 31 13 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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